• Today’s big news is the purchase by Egypt’s GASC of a further 295,000 mt of wheat for second half February shipment. The sources were 55,000 my from Ukraine, 60,000 mt Russian, 120,000 mt French and 60,000 mt US. There were, in addition to the traded origins, also offers from Romania. Of more significance than five origins was the fact that the offered levels were in a tight price range, the majority all within $3, and all within $7. Given the bearish outlook, we have to admit surprise at the volume purchased, which may well support our previous thought that Egypt has more to purchase than many believe. Clearly time will tell.

• Brussels has granted 829,247 mt of wheat export certificates maintaining the “brisk” pace. The season total now stands at 16.664 million mt, which is 5.187 million mt (45.2%) ahead of last season.

• Despite both the Egyptian tender and the vast EU exports it was interesting to note MATIF wheat trading lower. Maybe, at long last, there is a realisation that there are not too many homes clamouring for significant volumes of wheat in the coming months running up to the new harvest.

• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat; 401,900 mt which is within estimates of 350,000-600,000 mt.
Corn; 821,000 mt which is above estimates of 300,000-550,000 mt.
Soybeans; 1,226,800 mt which is above estimates of 750,000-1,050,000 mt.
Soybean meal; 234,700 mt which is above estimates of 50,000-150,000 mt.
Soybean oil; 16,900 mt which is within estimates of 0-35,000 mt.

• The strong export numbers gave CBOT markets something of a boost with corn and soybeans leading the way, and most soybean positions as well as the grains closing higher. The day’s high in March soybeans, $13.30½, remains below the $13.39¼, which is key resistance and we would not wish to see exceeded if our bearish stance is to remain intact. Markets retreated from the highs on additional producer selling and profit taking. In recent weeks we have seen weak Friday markets as Asian markets close earlier than the US and few want to take on additional risk in advance of the long weekend.  (Bear in mind it is a long weekend in the US as they celebrate Martin Luther King day on Monday).

• The fight in the market right now is in soybeans as tight US cash supplies battle it out with the record large S American crop. The latest S American weather forecast has added rain to Argentina and southern Brazil, which will be welcomed.