• Today saw a further week of massive EU wheat export licences granted by Brussels, which saw both London and Paris making gains. The week’s total hit 900,408 mt, which brought the season total to 23.966 million mt. This is 7.298 million mt (43.8%) ahead of last year. To hit the USDA’s latest 29 million mt EU wheat export total it is only necessary for weekly exports over the remaining 15 weeks of the season to hit 335,573 mt. Lack of Black Sea exports and ongoing corn imports make this look a certainty rather than a possibility right now.

• EU weekly corn import licence volume hit 501,000 mt bringing the season so far to 10.1 million mt, which is 16% higher than the same time last season. In the UK DEFRA increased its estimate for corn imports for 2013/14 to 2.01 million mt, higher than last year’s 1.69 million mt. There was an expectation of reduced corn imports into the UK after 2012/13 saw increased volumes due to the weather damaged wheat crop quality, thereby necessitating feed quality grain imports. It would seem that the UK feed manufacturer has developed an appetite for corn, no doubt driven by the price discount it has enjoyed, compared with wheat, and allowing an inclusion level of some 11% in average feed diets. Doubtless, increased supply from Ukraine who proved a competitive seller, particularly early in the season, has aided the situation.

• Chicago wheat rallied lat on in the session on suggestions of damaging frost conditions across Russia although there has been no corroboration – so far. US wheat growing conditions in the US have taken a turn for the better with improved precipitation, and a wetter outlook.

• Further Chinese soybean cancellations/washouts are again reported to be in discussion, the latest news suggesting that financing (in the form of letters of credit) have become more difficult as crush margins remain strongly negative and Bank of China restrict speculative interest by forcing early LC opening and therefore flat pricing rather than the previously more relaxed stance which left cargoes priced on basis.

• US weekly exports were reported as follows:

Wheat; 727,900 mt which is above estimates of 325,000-475,000 mt.
Corn; 1,436,700 mt which is above estimates of 525,000-725,000 mt.
Soybeans; 546,800 mt which is above estimates of 100,000-250,000 mt.
Soybean meal; 189,500 mt which is within estimates of 100,000-200,000 mt.
Soybean oil; 3,900 mt which is within estimates of zero-50,000 mt.

• Finally, the International Grains Council has released its latest forecast for 2014/15 global wheat output at 700 million mt, which is down 9 million mt year on year. Corn, on the other hand, was estimated at 961 million mt, an increase from 959 million mt year on year.