- The week has started in un-startling fashion in quiet volumes. Corn and soybeans are approaching the close in negative territory whilst wheat is only just positive. Many are suggesting that some heavy weather premium is now well established into new crop values; corn – $1.15 and soybeans – $2.35. From a historical perspective this level is right at the top end, and for this to be justified a significant yield decline or production loss, and this is even before the crops are fully planted.
- A cargo of Brazilian soybeans has arrived in the US Gulf, and is in the process of unloading. This is scheduled to be the first of an unknown number of shipments that are being diverted from their original destination, China. More cargoes are on offer by China, some are being diverted en route and the outlook going forward is not pretty.
- Added to the parlous state of Chinese soybean trade, it is becoming clear that the waiting time to load vessels with soybeans in Brazilian ports is reducing. This is in contrast to the same time last year when waiting times were growing to an alarming extent. As a consequence soybean basis prices in Brazil are at their weakest level in five years, exporters and traders there are reported to be very long basis cash soybeans. This is potentially an extremely bearish factor, and could well suit the tight US market who will welcome additional supplies, particularly if they are cheap!
- Finally, July to March grain exports from Russia have reached just under 20 million mt, 47% more than last year. Wheat makes up the bulk at 15.77 million mt, corn 3.1 million mt with barley and other grains making up the balance. The season total is expected to reach 22 million mt.