- Good evening, and welcome to our mad world! Markets in the US opened sharply higher as we approach May option expiry but eased back from early highs as the session progressed. Consumer price fixing was the key to early gains and once sated left more sellers than buyers.
- The main pointers today have included concern over delays in US corn planting with the 14 May cutoff (which is the traditional date regardless of conditions) still close to three weeks away. Whilst wet conditions have not been the main issue, it is the promise of continued cold that has driven the delay. We are not (yet) disturbed by “delays” as we know the US farmer can really cover the acres when conditions are right – as we have mentioned previously.
- Looking at other corn market influencers, high on-going consumption, particularly export sales, with nearly 20 weeks to go as some 97% of USDA season total exports are now committed looks to be a big issue. More sales will equate to reduced end stocks. However, 38% of sales commitments are still not shipped and could well be subject to cancellation or rolling forward to next season – thereby reducing current season commitment and adding back to end stock.
- The Ukraine has not really featured in today’s news, additional sanctions against a wider group of Russian officials has been announced by the US and EU, we feel certain that the Russians will be desperately upset at their summer holiday plans being disrupted and will doubtless moderate their political aspirations accordingly – NOT!
- Aside from Ukraine politics, planting of spring grains, excluding corn, stand at more than 2.6 million ha, In additrion, 2.07 million ha of corn are sown, which is around 40% of planned acres as well as over 2.6 million ha of sunflower (over 60% of plan). Recent rains have improved conditions for newly sown crops according to Agritel. In Russia, spring grain planting had reached 15~% of planned area with some 4.8 million ha sown by last Friday. The overall Russian 2014/15 grain harvest has been projected by Rusagrotrans in the range of 92 to 96.2 million mt, which compares with the AgMin figure of 96 to 97 million mt. Plantings in Belarus and Kazakhstan are also reported to be progressing well.
- Weather conditions for the coming fortnight across most of Europe are wetter than normal, which will benefit crops that have seen some dryer than normal conditions in the last month or so.