• CBOT wheat has seen lower levels today as have both London and Paris, the trigger being support levels giving way basis the July ’14 contract, favourable world weather and what looks like an overabundance of supply. Corn has not followed suit, trading marginally in positive territory as we write this. Seemingly there is a dilemma between the upside pull from soybeans and the downside pull from wheat leaving traders to decide which is the stronger force on corn prices. Soybeans and products remain higher on US tightness and on talk of fresh Chinese demand for both soybeans and soybean meal. There has been something of a “get me out” mentality behind some of today’s trade according to reports we have received.

• New crop soybean/corn spreads have widened (again) to 2.7 to 1. The soybean price rally has allowed the July ’14 contract to fill a technical chart gap left last July! This has long been an upside target for the bulls, and now filled may leave them satisfied – for now.

• The US today released its weekly export figures as follows:

Wheat; 352,000 mt which is within estimates of 200,000-550,000 mt.
Corn; 570,300 mt which is within estimates of 375,000-725,000 mt.
Soybeans; 615,500 mt which is within estimates of 350,000-800,000 mt. The old crop element was 164,400 mt which is above estimates of minus 150,000-150,000 mt.
Soybean meal; 350,400 mt which is above estimates of 75,000-350,000 mt.
Soybean oil; 41,300 mt which is above estimates of zero to 30,000 mt.

• Weekly EU wheat export certificates amounting to 283,459 were granted this week. This brings the season total to 27.434 million mt, which is 7.984 million mt (41%) ahead of last year. At the same time EU weekly corn imports amounted to 342,000 mt which brings the season to date to over 13 million mt. Clearly the corn imports are displacing wheat in feed rations allowing wheat to be made available for export.