- Lower has been today’s trade with front month July ’14 soybeans trading below $14.00/bu, breaching the significant 100 day moving average for the first time since early February – and trading convincingly lower. The new crop Nov ’14 contract has held support at $12.00/bu – so far – although floor brokers report expected selling into the close tonight.
- Corn has traded slightly lower whilst wheat as manage to find some support, from where we know not! The Romanian is under way with Ukraine expected to start early July. Active export sales from the black Sea have to be found before harvest is in full swing – otherwise lower prices will be necessary to attract buyers.
- The new crop soybean/corn ratio remains stubbornly resistant having hit 2.75:1 today – the message being new crop soybeans are still hugely expensive and have the potential for a huge setback – unless corn prices rise (unlikely in our opinion).
- The latest US crop condition report showed corn as 76% good/excellent, up from 75% week on week and up from 64% year on year.The crop is 97% emerged, better than last week, last year and ahead of the five year average. Soybeans were reported 73% good/excellent, below last week’s 74%, but ahead of last year’s 64%. The crop is 92% planted ahead of all comparatives, and is 83% emerged, again ahead of all comparatives. US winter wheat was rated 30% good/excellent, which is unchanged week on week and 1% behind last year, the crop was reported to be 92% headed which is ahead of all prior period comparatives.Harvest is reported to be 16% harvested, behind the five year average of 20%. US spring wheat is now 72% good/excellent, up from 71% week on week and 68% year on year. Emergence at 91% is above prior period comparisons. All in all, US crops look to be in good fettle!