6 November 2014

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  • US soybeans return to the $10.00/bu plus level on better than anticipated US export sales.
  • Corn and wheat US export sales lacklustre demonstrating lack of price competitiveness.
  • US soybean meal exports slip into negative territory on cancellations as expected.
  • US$ pushes to four year highs pressuring commodity prices and crude falls.
  • EU weekly wheat exports 560 kmt, 10.9 million mt year to date. Questions over whether there is sufficient quality available to reach USDA’s annual projections.
  • Yesterday’s dip below $10.00/bu for Dec ’14 soybeans has not lasted long as prices moved back and forth with the soybean complex higher as we approach the close. Better than expected soybean export sales with China picking up a further 58 million bu was the highlight with corn and wheat demonstrating a clear uncompetitiveness and net soybean meal cancellations amounting to 124,000 mt as trade is shifted to S America. (Detail follows below.)
  • The US$ shrugged off early weakness and pushed to new four year highs whilst crude oil has fallen a further $0.50-$0.70/barrel on US$ strength. Markets are drawing breath ahead of Monday’s USDA report and consequently there is little in the way of dramatic news today. If we see, as expected, a higher soybean yield in the report it could well validate $10.60 as the season top in the Jan ’15 soybean contract.
  • US export data was released today as follows:

Wheat; 265,800 mt which is below estimates of 325,000-525,000 mt.
Corn; 478,100 mt which is below estimates of 600,000-800,000 mt.
Soybeans; 1,613,000 mt which is above estimates of 900,000-1,100,000 mt.
Soybean meal; MINUS 122,900 mt which is below estimates of 100,000-250,000 mt.
Soybean oil; 13,900 mt which is within estimates of 5,000-30,000 mt.

  • Brussels granted a further weekly wheat export certification figure of 559,186 mt, which brings the season total to 10.959 million mt. This is 1.084 million mt (10.98%) ahead of the same time last year. Whilst the pace remains ahead of last season there are questions over whether there is sufficient export quality wheat left to meet the USDA’s annual number, which would require a further 17 million mt!