• Egypt’s GASC tendered for wheat again yesterday after the close, this time for mid February shipment, and has awarded 180,000 mt all to France. The three cargoes averaged a C&F price of $263.65/mt, which is some $10.00/mt below their last purchase. Despite the tender invitation specifically including Russian origin supplies because of their “exempt” status from the recently announced export curb it was noticeable that there were no Russian offers. This latest tender brings the season purchase total to 3.085 million mt, by comparison last year’s import purchases reached a total of 5.46 million mt in addition to 3.7 million mt of locally sourced wheat.

• The US released weekly export data as follows:

Wheat; 226,300 mt which is within estimates of 200,000-400,000 mt.
Corn; 597,700 mt which is below estimates of 600,000-800,000 mt.
Soybeans; 910,900 mt which is above estimates of 500,000-700,000 mt.
Soybean meal; 37,200 mt which is below estimates of 50,000-200,000 mt.
Soybean oil; 30,200 mt which is above estimates of 5,000-20,000 mt.

• Brussels eased back on the weekly pace of wheat exports for the second week running (both holiday weeks) with certificated granted for 210,339 mt. This brings the season total to 15.663 million mt which is marginally behind last season’s record figures. Weekly corn imports reached a figure of 213,000 mt bringing the Oct-Sep season total to 1.877 million mt, which argues to a season total of close to 8 million mt (at current prices). Interestingly, both US and S American corn prices are cheaper on an FOB basis than Ukrainian offers, and could potentially leave Ukraine with a major stock build going into 2015.

• Despite news of “brutal cold” in the US, fears that next week’s meeting in Kiev between the government and exporters could see a “copy cat” of Russia’s latest export curb, and the sale to Egypt by France, we still saw Matif wheat close sharply lower. The prospect of French stocks set to grow to more than 5 million mt and with early new season crop development and conditions looking favourable, current price levels may well look high in a couple of months time. Today the market has a feel that it doesn’t care if Black Sea closes for business right now! Early season EU concerns over quality appear about to be replaced by late season concerns over a 70% increase in end stocks, and that is despite what may well end up being with 30 million mt of exports!

• Markets are a touch easier with under an hour to go in Chicago as fresh news is limited and the market anticipates fund rebalancing. It is expected that the rebalance will see some selling in wheat and corn and limited movement in the soybean complex. Aside from that, traders are awaiting Brazil’s CONAB data on Friday and, of course, the USDA figures on Monday, and as a consequence there is little else to report.

• The latest weather forecast across Mato Grosso and C Brazil in the coming two weeks is predicting cumulative rains of 2.5″ to 6.0” covering up to 80-85% of the country’s growing region through to Jan 22. This is reportedly sufficient to bring the soybean crop to maturity and crop scouts are continuing to predict excellent yields. The East/N East however (Bahia and Minas Gerais) are forecast to receive only a trace of precipitation and crop stresses are reported to be likely. Losses in these regions are likely to be more than offset by gains in S Brazil. Argentina is also forecast to benefit from substantial rains in coming weeks boosting their output potential.