• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 493,200 mt, which is above estimates of 300,000-450,000 mt.
Corn: 514,300 mt, which is below estimates of 600,000-800,000 mt.
Soybeans: 198,700 mt, which is below estimates of 300,000-500,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 101,800 mt, which is within estimates of 50,000-200,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 4,600 mt which is within estimates of zero-15,000 mt.

• Brussels issued weekly wheat export certificates totalling a massive 1,643,824 mt, which brings the season total to 24,254,391 mt. This is 1.788 million mt (7.96%) ahead of last year’s record pace. The volume is the second highest weekly total this season, marginally behind week ending 3 February which saw certificates totalling 1.707 million mt.

• The seasonal switch of international trade away from the US and into S America is evidenced by the drastically reduced US soybean export figures, which were below even the lowest estimated levels. We would expect ongoing US soybean export sales to be minimal for the remainder of the season as Brazil picks up the slack and Argentina, if it ever truly pulls its socks up, to follow as their harvest gets under way. We note from the latest data that one US soybean cargo has been switched to  S America, and that there are 656,000 mt of “optional origin” sales outstanding, all of which could be vulnerable to switching purely on economic and financial grounds (S America is cheaper). A rumour is circulating that a US cargo of soybean meal, destined for the EU has been switched to cheaper Brazilian supplies. Like soybeans, outstanding US meal sales include a record large 825,000 to “unknown” destinations and there looks to be a growing possibility that these are vulnerable to switching as well. Any switched volumes will have to be added back to US end stocks, which is why we commented accordingly on the USDA figures earlier in the week.

• In Arkansas, in the US, it has been confirmed that the H5N@ strain of avian bird flu has broken out on a turkey farm. Fears of the virus being spread by migratory birds are growing and a spread into the broiler industry cannot be ruled out as the migration season is under way. The potential for restrictions on exports if there is any spread of the virus should also be borne in mind, and the impact on feed consumption is not minimal given that 14% of turkey and 19% of broiler production is sold overseas. Poultry producer’s margins have been sufficiently buoyant to suggest that early or precautionary culls are unlikely at this time.

• Further suggestions that Brazilian truckers are to resume their blockages have been rumoured although not confirmed. Our contacts advise that any further action is likely to be non-organised, sporadic and with limited impact at this time, but the political protest scheduled for Sunday could possibly re-ignite the issue – watch this space!