18 March 2015

The world grain market needs a demand driver! The world biofuel industry is mature and the recent sharp drop in energy prices will likely limit trade on competitiveness. World feed consumption rates are rising with crop sizes, but it’s unknown if this is a function of residual – or actual – feeding rates. This leaves China as needing to step forward and become a much larger grain importer if there’s to be a change in demand trends – which are only growing 1.8% annually. The chart below reflects that China’s grain stocks are surging – to their highest levels since 2001! China is having to build more storage to accommodate all of the supply. High prices to farmers are stimulating yield and acres. China is not expected to be a sizeable importer in world corn for several years as they chew through their own supply.