• Markets are lacklustre today with thin volumes and trade has been both sides of unchanged. Wheat has caught a bid on dry conditions and fund selling in corn has eased from the last few days. It feels like apathy is ruling the markets right now and there is a desire to see the USDA report and move on!

• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 534.800 mt, which is within estimates of 350,000-550,000 mt.
Corn: 567,100 mt, which is within estimates of 500,000-700,000 mt.
Soybeans: 347,000 mt, which is within estimates of 250,000-450,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 217,600 mt, which is above estimates of zero-150,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 8,100 mt which is within estimates of zero-20,000 mt.

• Brussels issued another big week of wheat export certificates totalling 800,818 mt, which brings the season total to 25,055,209 mt. This is 1.989 million mt (8.62%) ahead of last year’s record pace.The pace of exports has picked up week on week and it remains to be seen whether the USDA’s 31.5 million mt forecast will be achieved.

• In the absence of any significant news it remains to be noted that in wheat we have huge currency volatility, politics, weather concerns, a near record fund short and a major report some two weeks away. Old crop cash markets may continue to suffer but it is likely that deferred risk will come off the table for now. In corn, despite delays in the south we are seeing warm dry conditions in the rest of the US which could make this a fast plant year – historically this can produce big acreage changes (gains?) from March intentions to final numbers. In soybeans, the huge S American crop is almost home and dry (no pun intended), the Brazilian Real is flirting again with recent lows despite yesterday’s US$ reversal , Argentine farmers are said to need cash and we reported on the Farm Futures acres yesterday, which all looks negative at face value. However, the long US$ trade continues to look crowded, particularly with month and quarter end looming. Open interest has risen substantially and there is no agreement on US acres yet for either beans or corn and Brazilian truckers may still have some fight left in them. Long term may well be lower but we should all be aware that there is no easy money to be had in these markets right now.