• We have seen modest gains today as funds have been buyers in corn, wheat and soybeans and a limited number (13 according to one source) of road blocks have appeared in Brazil. Around a third of the roadblocks are in Mato Grosso where the soybean harvest is complete, port activity is normal yet the speculative community have decided to cover some short positions. As always, time will tell as to whether the strike builds or falters.

• Outside markets in the US$, which is down 1%, crude oil which has rallied $1.80/barrel to new multi-month highs and gasoline futures that are testing $2.00/gal have all added some support to a market which continues to lack any fresh fundamental input.

• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 524,400 mt, which is above estimates of zero-100,000 mt.
Corn: 874,100 mt, which is above estimates of 400,000-600,000 mt.
Soybeans: 110,200 mt, which is within estimates of minus 100,000-plus 150,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 130,200 mt, which is within estimates of 50,000-150,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 4,400 mt which is within estimates of zero-20,000 mt.

• Brussels continued its pattern of large weekly wheat exports with this week’s total hitting 757,852 mt, which brings the season total to 28,693,727 mt. This is 2.62 million mt (10.03%) ahead of last year’s record pace.

• StatsCan’s latest report shows 2015 Canadian wheat seedings up 3.9% to 24.8 million acres vs. 23.8 million in 2014. Conversely 2015 canola seedings were down 4.5% at 19.4 million acres vs. 20.3 million a year ago.

• Further statistics today came from the IGC who raised their estimate for 2015/16 global corn output by 10 million mt to 951 million mt, which is lower than the previous year’s record 994 million mt crop. Global wheat production for 2015/15 was cut by 4 million mt to 705 million mt with downgrades in Argentina, China and India, and compares with 721 million mt the previous year. Despite the reduction in estimates and year on year output, the IGC commented that total grain output would still be around 3% above the five year average, which reflects mostly favourable growing conditions in key areas.

• To make a general summary, the EU and Black Sea wheat surplus appears to be growing and there is not currently and weather issue to spark significant short covering which could spike prices. In corn the US weather is trending warmer and drier from next week which will speed planting, and as we have suggested, corn does not have a pressing demand story. In the absence of a weather issue any upside looks limited at this time.In soybeans we are seeing some uplift in prices from the Brazilian trucker’s roadblocks but in our view this is of limited longer term impact. In the face of normal weather it feels as if the world is awash with soybeans. Chart technicals are providing support – for now, a short covering bounce can not be ruled out but the fundamentals continue to point lower.