• Today’s general election in the UK may well have spread across the Channel and upset our French cousins as the soon to expire (Monday is expiry day) May ’15 Matif wheat contract collapsed €10 whilst the cash market in Rouen also shed €7. The significance of the numbers is that the deferred market has not seen a similar drop reflecting nearby pressures rather than costly carries.

• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 298,600 mt, which is above estimates of minus 100,000-plus 100,000 mt.
Corn: 897,200 mt, which is above estimates of 450,000-750,000 mt.
Soybeans: 689,200 mt, which is above estimates of zero-350,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 168,100 mt, which is above estimates of 90,000-150,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 15,600 mt which is above estimates of zero-10,000 mt.

• The data, whilst exclusively above trade expectations, was deemed to be neither bullish or bearish, just a non-event. Old crop wheat sales were again negative, to the tune of 148,200 mt, lower than last weeks figure but once again reflecting cancellations.

• Brussels has issued weekly wheat exports of 301,414 mt, which brings the season total to 29,629,162 mt. This is another weekly decline and it is getting harder to envision the USDA’s 33.5 million mt target being hit. The cumulative export total now stands at 2.92 million mt (10.94%) ahead of last year’s record pace.

• Chicago markets closed lower pretty much across the board as deliveries of corn against the May contract pressured futures and outside markets reversed the prior day’s gains. Crude oil has eased back $1.30/barrel, gasoline is $0.40/gallon lower and the US$ bounced off technical support levels.

• The trade is generally aware of the production side of US balance sheets in the coming May USDA report, scheduled for release next Tuesday  normal abandonment and Outlook Conference yields plus a bit extra amid timely seedings. Focus will be on consumption growth (or contraction), particularly export demand, note US price competitiveness or otherwise. It could well be that 2015/16 end stocks may be just a bit above expectations on non-US supply. The trade has also largely digested period South American labour strikes, which are routine during the spring months. Central US weather continues to be too good at this time to permit price rallies to gather too much momentum.