• Chicago trade has been mixed with fund buyers once again evident on technical trade. Questions remain over whether or not the recent wet conditions will adversely impact acres or yields. Fund, who have been net short to a sizeable degree, have been buyers and this is countering cash selling by farmers. A weaker US$ has also added a touch of market support.

• US weather looks as if the worst of the rains will end as tropical storm Bill passes through the Ohio Valley within the next 48 hours. Rains have reduced but already saturated soils has left some ponding and low level flooding. Will this be a serious negative to yield? Time, as always will tell, but the old adage of “rain makes grain” still sits in the forefront of our mind right now.

• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 315.900 mt, which is within estimates of 200,000-400,000 mt.
Corn: 827,600 mt, which is above estimates of 450,000-800,000 mt.
Soybeans: 664,900 mt, which is above estimates of 250,000-600,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 176,300 mt, which is within estimates of 50,000-250,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: minus 100 mt, which is below estimates of zero-10,000 mt.

• The above numbers were unsurprising given that US wheat and soybeans look uncompetitive into October! Brazil will doubtless be a massive exporter of corn for the coming six months, which will be a drag on further US corn sales.

• Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates amounting to  385298 mt, which brings the season total to 32,481581 mt. The season to date total is now 3.355 million mt (11.52%) ahead of last year.

• Our overall outlook suggests that as the N Hemisphere wheat harvest is almost here, despite some ongoing  issues,there is little to suggest that a major reversal of price trend is under way. In corn next week’s US weather forecast for warm and dry conditions will be very welcome, and needed. The cooler and wetter 8-15 day outlook should also be viewed as favourable as the crop moves into its pollination phase. The appears to be plentiful US stock and the recent rally in corn looks to be less solid than in soybeans. Each year, almost without exception, we see a market phenomenon known as a weather market, prices moving up and down on whatever the current forecasts bring – exacerbated by fund orders. Our view is to “sit it out” until after the June stocks report and possibly even two weeks into July. Remember last year’s 70 cent plunge in prices – and the regrets of those who jumped too soon!