The USDA’s long awaited figures have finally been published today and the report was generally received as bullish with CBOT grain and soy markets sharply higher.

The trade received an unexpected surprise with a cut in 2011/12 world corn production and stocks, although 2012 corn and soybean production estimates were close to expected levels although acres for both crops were increased as expected.

The numbers were as follows:
US 2012 wheat ending stocks @ 654 miobus, above estimates of 630, and below 698 mom.
World 12/13 wheat ending stocks @ 173 M t, above estimates of 172.813, and below 176.71 mom.

US 2012 corn crop @ 10.706 biobus, above estimates of 10.601, and below 10.727 mom.
US 2012 corn yield @ 122 bpa, below estimates of 122.884, and below 122.8 mom.
US corn 12/13 ending stocks @ 619 miobus, below estimates of 648, and below 733 mom.
World 12/13 corn ending stocks @ 117.27 M t, below estimates of 121.322, and below 123.95 mom.

US 2012 soy crop @ 2.86 biobus, above estimates of 2.764, and above 2.634 mom.
US 2012 soy yield @ 37.8 bpa, above estimates of 37.006, and above 35.3 mom
US soy 12/13 ending stocks @ 130 miobus, below estimates of 134, and above 115 mom.
World 12/13 soy ending stocks @ 57.56 M t, above estimates of 53.301, and above 53.1 mom.

Moving forward we would expect the November report to show further declines in corn production as all of the acres chopped for silage are counted as “crop” and yield continues to decline. We recall that in the past crops continue to get smaller more often than not, and we expect this to be a feature through to final output figures are released in January.