- The fund positions were updated with data released last night (rather than last Friday on account of the 4th July US holiday). Readers will notice some big changes; we have seen the largest weekly combined soybean, corn and wheat net gain since our data collation began at the start of 2012. The funds added a massive 253,336 contracts (corn 147,053, wheat 56,863 and soybeans 49,420) This still leaves them net short in corn and wheat, 9,214 and 22,413 respectively and we saw the net soybean long position position grow week on week.
- Our weekly fund position charts can be downloaded by clicking on the link below:
- We have in recent weeks reflected on what we saw as a massive shift of ownership within the CBOT grain and soy markets. Key moving averages were breached and fund managers piled into a massive amount of long corn positions that drove CBOT values higher into July. The chart below reflects this massive ownership change and whether this net long fund position is justified will be determined by weather and yield estimates in coming weeks.
- Soybean planting progress through Sunday advanced to 96% complete, with this week’s report to be the last national planting progress update. Crop ratings were unchanged with national good/excellent steady at 63%. MO soybean seeding advanced to 73% and by next week we argue that some 80% will be planted leaving 1-1.1 million acres unseeded. We continue to hold to a bearish outlook on large global stocks and declining competitiveness in global markets. S American exports look to deeply cut into traditional US business leaving the US with a potential to hold over 400 million bu of 2015/16 stocks.
- US corn good/excellent ratings were pegged at 69%, vs. 68% a week ago and 75% last year. Highlights include 3% improvements in MN, MO, OH and TN, while IL, IA and KS were down 1%. Such a national rating – as of this week – points toward a yield range of 164- 169 bu/acre. Further improvement is expected next Monday. The US crop is 12% silking.
- US wheat crop ratings are down slightly on the week. Winter wheat conditions are put at 40% good/excellent, vs. 41% a week ago. Ratings across the PNW continue to erode, with ID and WA down 3 and 6 points, respectively. Good/excellent in KS is up 1% at 33%. Good/excellent is OH is pegged at 52%, up 6% on the week. US spring conditions fell 1% to 70% good/excellent – also amid deterioration in ID and WA. Winter wheat is 55% harvested, unchanged from last year. Spring wheat is 76% headed, vs. 44% a year ago.