- Tuesday’s trade has shown us some lower levels on the back of further improvement in Midwest weather and a risk-off mentality, both of which have combined to pressure prices, particularly so in early trade. Both China economic and Greek exit concerns have headlined as the CRB Index continues to fall, sharply. The US DOW looks to be set for its lowest close since February as global markets fret over future global economic growth, and Greece’s unpaid debt burden.
- Funds and large speculators are reported to have been huge sellers – seemingly they now appreciate that the recent rally was built upon a record shift of managed money from equity and industrial commodities into the ags. It appears that the funds have not been moved from their longs in grains, whilst in the soy complex it is the soybean oil market that has reflected the funds length disposal. Soybean oil is closely watching, indeed following, crude oil which is itself watching the nuclear negotiations in Iran – that extended overnight.significant
- US soybean crushers and grain consumers are reported to have secured significant volumes of cash supplies during the past few weeks of price rally and have cover extending well into August. They are now looking for improved weather and its impact upon new crop prices before extending their cover further forward.
- Reports from the Black Sea are suggesting that there will likely be an upward revision to the 2015 Russian wheat crop, possibly as high as 59 million mt, on the back of high early reported harvest yields in SW Russia. The early harvest is also reported to be of high quality, but the unknowns over the export tax situation has prevented any significant market move. Exporters are reported to have reduced bids to growers on both the yield and quality news as well as the export tax uncertainties.
- Matif wheat closed €4 lower helped by losses in Chicago as well as reports of better than expected prospects in C France as well as a French AgMin crop forecast of 37.9 million mt, up 1% on last year. Additionally, one major weather model has taken most of the heat out of the European forecast from Wednesday, but not added rain apart from in Germany.