- Last night saw analyst, FC Stone issue its latest US crop estimates, which showed US corn yield at 165 bushels/acre and soybean yield at 45 bushels/acre. Both numbers were viewed as bearish upon release as they translated into the 3rd largest US corn and 2nd largest US soybean crops on record, and bullish inspiration was difficult to find. However, historically, FC Stone has overstated the US corn yield 59% of the time and in soybeans 64% of the time. Thus, there is a slight bias to overstate yield and production in their estimates compared to the upcoming NASS report.
- Further detail into the release shows that FC Stone as of August 1st estimated the US corn crop at 13,381 million bu based upon a yield of 165 bushels/acre. This yield is above what the trade was expecting and is considered slightly bearish. Stone pegged the IA corn yield at 187 bushels/acre, IL at 174 and MN at 184 bushels/acre. The IN corn yield was estimated at 149 bushels/acre and OH at 160 bushels/acre. The MO corn yield was estimated at 130 bushels/acre. FC Stone estimated August 1st US soybean yield at 45 bushels/acre with US production at 3,797 million bu. Stone estimated the IL soybean yield at 48 bushels/acre, IA at 52 bushels/acre, and MN at 47 bushels/acre. The IN soybean yield was pegged at 45 bushels/acre with OH at 47 bushels/acre. The Missouri soybean production as estimated at 200 million bu with a yield of 35 bushels/acre. It’s interesting to note that the ND soybean yield at 36 bushels/acre was above MO yield of 35 bushels/acre. The FC Stone soybean yield was seen as slightly bearish and some slight pressure was expected in the overnight trade.
- Having said that, today has seen additional risk premium being added into corn, wheat and soybean futures ahead of next weeks critical USDA releases including the August crop report and the FSA acreage data due on 17th. Talk of drier than desired conditions across much of the eastern corn belt in the coming week, although heat is absent, has also added some premium today.
- Informa Economics added to the data party with their latest estimates, which pegged US corn yield at 165.4 bushels/acre and output at 13,412 million bu and soybean yield at 45.4 bushels/acre with output at 3,789 million bu. Both numbers were a touch above trade estimates and again are deemed slightly bearish. Worthy of additional note is their adjustment to Ukrainian corn output, an additional ½ million mt to 26.5 and an additional ½ million mt to Russian wheat output to 57.5 million mt.
- Egypt’s GASC issued a further wheat tender, this time for 11-20 September shipment, which saw what can only be described as a stunning range of offers with Russian, Ukraine, Romanian and French offers all undercutting recent paper market prices, and that despite the removal of the 13.5% moisture allowance on French. Russia secured 120,000 mt from Russia around $7 below the last tender price despite Ukraine being cheapest on an FOB basis. (Maybe there was a disagreement on the price of cotton in exchange!) Paris wheat on the Matif exchange traded lower initially but, despite Egypt, it reversed when Chicago rallied.