- General comments upon first sight of the report suggest that they are outright bearish, US corn yield at 168.8 is 2 bushels/acre higher than July’s estimate and soybean yield up 0.9 bushels/acre at 46.9 bushels/acre. Our earlier commentary suggesting that excess June rain correlates poorly with yield appears to be holding water (no pun intended). Also, corn and bean yields across IL, IN, MO, OH and the drier pockets of the Southeast are down 5-20% from a year ago. Yields in the Western Corn Belt are up 2-15%. It should be noted that USDA yield forecasts are now a function of weather and statistical modelling rather than what was previously thought to be a “wet finger in the air”!
- Soybean harvested acres, following NASS’s resurvey, were lower 0.8 million. Corn harvested acres were left unchanged. Additional fine-tuning of yield and acreage will no doubt occur in subsequent months, but barring a widespread early frost, our takeaway from the August report is that US supply risks have been nearly eliminated.
- Global 2015/16 corn stocks were boosted 5 million mt to 195 million mt due to higher production and a modest downgrade in domestic feed use. Wheat stocks were raised another 1.7 million mt to 221.5. Global soybean stocks were lowered 5 million mt, as Increased domestic use and trade offset higher production.
- To download our recap of today’s USDA report please click on the link below: