• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 314,400 mt, which is within estimates of 300,000-500,000 mt. (Old crop 314,400 mt – New crop nil)
Corn: 859,100 mt, which is above estimates of 350,000-800,000 mt. (Old crop 282,700 mt – New crop 576,400 mt)
Soybeans: 830,800 mt, which is within estimates of 500,000-1,050,000 mt. (Old crop 46,400 mt – New crop 784,400 mt)
Soybean Meal: 232,800 mt, which is above estimates of 25,000-225,000 mt. (Old crop 62,800 mt New crop 170,000 mt)
Soybean Oil: 7,100 mt, which is within estimates of zero-15,000 mt. (Old crop 7,100 mt New crop nil)

• New crop corn and soybean sales were pretty good, but the export data was otherwise uneventful. Cumulative new crop corn sales are 40% behind last year, new crop soybean commitments are 46% down, wheat is 15% down and soybean meal commitments are 50% behind last year. Significantly improved export demand is essential, and soon, if USDA forecasts are to be reached.

• Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates amounting to  591,624 mt, which brings the season total to 3,079,879 mt. The season to date total is 388,932 mt (14.45%) ahead of last year.

• A couple of general comments:

• In soybeans the Pro Farmer crop tour is still confirming reasonably high yield potential, and as a consequence it could be that we have still not seen the market lows yet.

• In corn we seem to have a situation where yield concerns are limiting selling and demand concerns are limiting buying! Where can a market like this go?

• In wheat there is still no definite sign of a low but the oversold market condition and slight reversal may provide some support and additional buying.

• The market is seeing some spread trading of grains against the soybean complex due to the persistence of favourable Central US weather. The industry well understands that this week’s rain and now the upcoming cool temperatures are ideal for yield potential, but its soybeans that will benefit more as this crop is still in its reproductive stage, whilst corn is increasingly pushing closer to full maturity.

• The Pro Farmer tour is pushing out state by state data on corn that suggests NASS is too high in its corn yield estimates. The Tour numbers are coming in well below the August NASS figures, which is not in itself unusual, however the deviation is greater than would be normally expected – maybe a warning sign! To counter this, we would again suggest that global export demand for both grains and oilseeds remains slow and this point should not be overlooked. World wheat and corn trade for August is some 20% behind last year, and China appears very slow in stepping forward and buying new crop US soybeans in the second half of October and November. Worryingly (for the US) it is reported that an estimated 6 million mt of S American soybeans have been sold to China in the September to November shipment period, the latter part of which is the key “gut slot” for the US soybean export programme. Replacing these “lost” sales will prove difficult for the US – if not impossible – and the impact upon end stocks should be borne in mind.