- Chicago markets, corn, wheat and soybeans, all closed lower today with little in the way of fresh news to trade. Weaker Chinese trade was suggested although October is expected to see a record 10.3 million mt of soybeans from all origins shipped in. It is looking increasingly difficult to be too bearish on soybeans as we are at multi-year low prices, US crush margins are above $0.90/bu and the US will ship out record soybean volumes in October.
- In corn the spread between US Gulf and S American/Ukraine fob prices is narrowing and as Chicago prices ease back Argentine and Brazilian levels are not following.
- It seems that Black Sea fob wheat prices are rising on demand that can best be described as lacklustre. A rising Russian Ruble immediately after a falling Ruble is making life difficult in the extreme for interior wheat origination. World farmers appear to be very reluctant to part with corn, wheat or soybeans at current low prices and US farmers would not appear to be cash strapped right now, so grain and soybean movement remains slow, which ultimately will translate into a lack of Chicago futures selling.
- The US Fed has left interest rates on hold once again but gave what has been described as a signal of a possible rate hike at its next meeting.
- All in all we seem to be stuck in a trading range for now with little to push us out of that range at present. The end of the N American harvest and the start of a new growing season in S America gives little cause for any additional bearishness. On the other hand US grain export demand continues to struggle and (right now) Q1 US domestic demand is unknown, US soybean exports (as mentioned above) in October will be record large but unless we see a S American weather problem develop there is nothing to break us out of current rangebound trade.