- Midday saw what appeared to be a classic “Turnaround Tuesday” in both soybeans and corn as March corn was unable to break to the upside through its 50 day moving average. Wheat received some support from fund short covering. Early losses are being eroded as we move towards the close although soybeans and corn remain in negative territory.
- Argentine corn offers continue to fall as confirmation emerges that grain export taxes are removed. This leaves Argentine offers at $0.45 over March futures for spot delivery compared with US Gulf at $0.60 over and the discount widens for further forward positions. France, Germany, Ukraine, Russia and Argentina are offering (and reputedly selling) wheat below $195/mt for nearby arrival compared with US Gulf quotes at $208-218, which is an unrealistic premium.
- S American and general N Hemisphere weather forecasts remain largely non-threatening and favourable, and as such we have to continue to view price rallies as limited in potential and the bearish outlook having more credibility than a bullish picture at this time.