- Today’s first full working weekday back saw some sharply lower prices in Chicago as US and global equity markets traded lower. A firming US$ and ongoing concern over global economic growth prospects carried into the new year from 2015. In addition, an oversupplied world crude oil market created disappointment with political tensions high between Iran and Saudi Arabia not translating into a bullish price impact. New Year price tone remains stubbornly bearish with the only safe haven appearing in the form of gold and slowing global growth being the main drag on ag commodities.
- CBOT wheat and corn fell to fresh contract lows and Mar ’16 soybeans within 8 cents of its contract low. Continuation charts suggest support lies at $3.49 for Mar ’16 corn and $4.51 for Mar ’16 wheat.
- Wheat prices for Black Sea weakened as many celebrate the orthodox Christmas and New Year holiday, and if USDA export estimates are to be reached in either Black Sea or EU sellers will have to become more aggressive with price. Unless this is we will be facing record milling wheat stocks in the EU assuming a normal 2016 harvest.
- Brazilian exports in December were reported as soybeans 730,000 mt (vs. 1.44 million mt Nov and 140,000 mt last year), soybean meal 1.04 million mt (vs, 1.13 million mt Nov and 870,000 last year) soybean oil 163,550 mt (vs. 111,720 mt Nov and 65,130 last year). Corn exports in December were reported at 6.27 million mt, record large (vs. 4.76 million mt Nov and 3.4 million mt last year). Exports across the board were larger than generally anticipated by the trade.
- Fund selling has continued and tonights holiday delayed CFTC report is expected to show an increase in fund short position, we will update our charts tomorrow.