- Egypt’s GASC has once again tendered for wheat, on this occasion for 20 Feb-Mar 1 shipment, and has secured a total of 235,000 mt with Romania and France each picking up 60,000 mt and Russia the balance of 115,000 mt. Volume of offers appear to be down somewhat on uncertainty of payment date and also the reduction in ergot content levels to 0.05%.
- Markets today have received something of a boost from crude and equity markets bouncing somewhat from extreme oversold positions.
- Ethanol stocks in the US have risen again to a four year high of 21.94 million gallons, which is seen as “disappointing” and perhaps reflects the reduced economic incentive for blenders to utilise ethanol. Ethanol is priced well above unleaded gasoline and consequently the ethanol producer will have to either find export markets or face even greater stock build into early spring time. Surely ethanol production profitability will be limited in coming weeks/months!
- EU wheat exports for the week were some 511,000 mt, which is below the pace required to hit the latest USDA forecast of 32.5 million mt. Current export pace suggests a more modest 28-28.5 million mt total, which would see further stock building. Russian fob offers continue to soften and it feels as if we are on the brink of a fight to secure the few remaining spring and early summer demand requirements. The EU, Russia, Canada and US have to become more competitive if they are to reach their ultimate export targets, and it feels as if this is a tall order for them all to succeed.