• We have seen something of a weak and unconvincing “turnaround Tuesday” amid further short covering as prices approach the close in negative territory. Soybean meal looks to be technically weak as chart support has given way and lower levels look likely from a purely technical perspective. Winter wheat conditions are reported to be the best in years across Black Sea and much of E Europe. Outside markets have weighed on ags today with the DOW lower at midday, crude oil off $1/barrel with gasoline following (and again below the price of ethanol) and it is expected that US ethanol and crude stocks, due to be reported tomorrow, will remain at or near record high volumes.

• Markets remain in limbo awaiting new and fresh news. The next major input will come from stocks and seedings data from NASS at the end of the month, meanwhile it remains difficult to argue major price moves in the short term. An early to normal planting season in the US looks likely right now, removing one risk area, and the longer range (June/July) forecasts suggest excessive heat in central US is unlikely, again taking threats away from current price uplift. S America’s dominance of exports in the near term suggests to us that fund inspired rallies will be limited and offer opportunities to sell rather than be chased by buyers. N hemisphere weather remains the only likely issue to sustain price rallies – if it turns adverse.

• Stratégie Grains have reported French conditions as beneficial for winter cereal production and spring plantings. The mild winter conditions and lack of damaging frosts have left crops and prospects in a promising position.

• March 1st US wheat stocks report can be downloaded by clicking on the link below:

March 1st 2016 US wheat stocks