• It has been lower in Chicago markets today despite early US export sales data supporting soybeans in particular (more on that later). Profit taking and technical weakness has taken over and prices are in the red across all ag sectors. One news feature that is as yet unconfirmed suggests China may well sell part of its soybean reserve in coming days, limiting (potentially significantly) near term export demand as well as potentially triggering cancellations of prior purchases. The US$ has gained again, some 0.6% up, making gains of around 2% on the week to date leaving corrections in ag products almost inevitable.

• Corn has broken through its 100 day moving average and is sitting on its 50 day average, which is acting as support. Soybeans and meal have also posted more modest technical reversals and it will be interesting to see quite how keen the funds are to defend current positions in coming days.

• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 318,900 mt, which is within estimates of 200,000-700,000 mt.
Corn: 829,800 mt, which is below estimates of 900,000-1,450,000 mt.
Soybeans: 1,245,800 mt, which is above estimates of 600,000-1,000,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 152,700 mt, which is within estimates of 150,000-350,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 10,000 mt, which is within estimates of zero-20,000 mt.

• Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates totalling 888,311 mt, which brings the season total to 27,526,368 mt. This is 1.92 million mt (6.14%) behind last year.

• Fresh news is limited, rather a rehash of existing issues, although the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) has come up with a figure of 7.5% of the soybean area that is lost. It is a figure when all said and done, although we will have to wait another couple of weeks before confirmation, or otherwise, can be made. Their harvest will ramp up rapidly in coming days as temperatures and dryness prevail for the next ten days or so.

• US export sales (above) showed the best soybean figure for this particular week on record, although corn and wheat sales were disappointing.

• The old saying that bull markets need constant feeding to maintain life is as true as ever, and we are witnessing a distinct lack of fresh bullish input right now. Early support today from good US export sales in soybeans was followed by news that China may sell off soybean reserves, and it is this that the bull market has to digest today – resulting in losses on the day in the region of 1.8%. Argentine output cannot be traded by the bulls each day and US weather into early June looks favourable with near to normal precipitation and temperatures in the 16-30 day outlook.