17 May 2016

  • Headlines:
  • Soybean meal pushes to new highs pulling soybeans with it.
  • Corn inches higher with fresh longs punting on better exports.
  • Wheat follows corn and soybean markets to modest gains.
  • The morning started with prices green pretty much across the board despite little fresh news input although there was a suggestion that Europe was returning to the soybean meal market; in addition, the continued uncertainty over the timing of China’s reserve sales added to upward momentum.
  • Outside markets were supportive with a weaker US$, which reversed early gains and crude oil was once again higher by $0.30/barrel.
  • Russian farmers are reported to have seeded some 2.1 million ha of corn vs.1.8 million last year and spring wheat planting has reached 4.3 million ha vs. 3 million a year ago. The next ten days is forecast to have a warmer patter across the whole of Europe and Black Sea regions which will allow corn planting to speed up and aiding wheat development. Recent cooler conditions have slowed wheat growth a touch and we should see some “catch up” in coming days.
  • Clearly the soy markets is the “star” at present. US crush margins are positive, there remains uncertainty over quality in Argentina and the USDA has end stocks pegged likely until July or August before we will see any material changes. The grains have followed soy higher but not to the same extent. Our inclination not to chase the soy rally is based upon weak cash basis markets in soybeans, both interior and Gulf. The longer term prices will be dictated by weather more than anything and there is little in the way of threat from that corner at present.