- We are looking at extended holiday breaks both in the UK and US next weekend and reduced market exposure by traders would not be unexpected. Soybean meal rallied (again) to new highs before easing. Rumours exist, although unconfirmed, that Argentinian crushers are struggling to make 46.5% soybean meal specifications for export, potentially creating a discounted value product this coming season. Questions over a shift to US supplies at higher prices are being met with scepticism!
- Argentine farmers are more aggressive sellers with some 13.7 million mt reportedly sold to crushers, the third largest figure on record., as quality discounts appear to have been removed/ignored. FOB meal offers for 44/15% protein through to October are easy to find but 46.5% offers are thin on the ground to say the least.
- French and Russian FOB new crop wheat offers are once again in decline as forward sales books remain largely unfilled. Many are questioning what has happened to demand and there are few answers to the question. New crop supplies will become available in mid June, and pressure will doubtless come from the supply side rather than from demand.
- Has the upward momentum in soybean meal ended? Charts are turning lower, and in soybeans, and if the speculative onslaught has reached an end we could well see markets decline, potentially substantially, in coming days/weeks.