• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 317,800 mt, which is below estimates of 400,000-600,000 mt.
Corn: 1,355,600 mt, which is above estimates of 800,000-1,200,00 mt.
Soybeans: 911,300 mt, which is within estimates of 900,000-1,300,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 187,100 mt, which is within estimates of 50,000-300,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 54,700 mt, which is within estimates of 15,000-60,000 mt.

• Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates totalling 805,786 mt, which brings the season total to 1,035,593 mt. This is 61,045 mt (6.26%) ahead of last year.  Barley export certificates for the wee totalled 233,483 mt, bringing the season total to 426,892 mt which is 274,586 mt (39.14%) behind last year.

• Stratégie Grains have reduced their 2016 EU soft wheat production forecast by 1.2 million mt to 145.5 million mt from a month ago.

• The Russian AgMin have forecast their 2016 wheat crop at 64 million mt.

• Chicago markets have turned lower, soybeans substantially so as they backed away from an open chart gap as latest weather updates showed the US high pressure ridge, which was expected to bring high temperatures, retrograded somewhat allowing for cooler temperatures than have been anticipated in the latter days of July. Markets are hyper-sensetive to such changes as we have pointed out previously and today’s price action is a clear example.

• US private analysts peg 2016/17 US soybean end stocks between 185-260 million bu. Our estimate is 245 million bu. Such tight stocks likely do not fully account for the potential for enlarged Chinese demand in 2016/17, but if the US lost 1.5-2.0 bushels/acre of yield due to adverse weather, it would likely push 2016/17 US soybean stocks down to 140 million bu or less, which we estimate as the bare minimum, something that is called “pipeline” in the industry. Since Brazil and Argentina are out of exportable old crop soybean stocks, world end users have really no choice but to chase the market higher if US soybean yield losses exceed 3% from trend. The US 2016/17 soybean balance sheet is fragile and there is no room for much of any yield decline due to hot/dry weather. Traders and producers understand that crops can withstand 3-5 days of hot/dry weather next week, but it’s the weather during the last week of July and opening week of August that will be so important to yield. The weekend should offer the weather models to look forward to early August with increased confidence, so we expect increased volatility early next week as the market looks forward to August. Friday’s market will be determined by the overnight and midday models heading into the weekend.

• Trading any US weather forecast beyond 12 days is a nothing more than a folly!