• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 477,900 mt, which is within estimates of 350,000-550,000 mt.
Corn: 851,400 mt, which is below estimates of 900,000-1,300,000 mt.
Soybeans: 1,326,500 mt, which is above estimates of 800,000-1,200,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 201,600 mt, which is above estimates of 60,000-200,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 20,100 mt, which is within estimates of 5,000-60,000 mt.

• This morning we saw soybeans as having bounced higher on the oversold position but with little, if any August weather threat, US corn enjoying good weather into early August and a likely 170-171 bushels/acre yield and from a wheat perspective too many key exporters facing big crops and greater volumes to export. All in all a non-bullish picture, indeed a potentially bearish picture.

• Tonight we have seen MATIF wheat futures explode to the upside with gains of €7.25/mt as European crop prospects decline once again. There are some suggesting that the European crop could be as much as 11-15 million mt below last year. However, Chicago grain markets have failed to rally on favourable Midwest weather prospects, which have limited threat at this time. Any Chicago rally looks to be limited and focussed upon wheat although in our opinion upside is somewhat limited on competitive grounds.