- Chicago markets have seen further selling in the soybean complex as the Pro Farmer tour reports strong pod counts with obvious associations to yield prospects. November ’16 soybean futures pushed to a new weekly low, which in the event of a breach of $9.96 would see the trend reverse to downwards. Corn has made a rally attempt on the Pro Farmer tour suggestion that the NASS yield estimate is too high with its 175.1 bushels/acre forecast. Wheat is a follower (nothing changes!) and Chicago Dec ’16 futures pushed to new contract lows adding to the bearish profile.
- Recall our comments on big crop/big demand, we continue to caution against an overly bearish stance despite seemingly bearish fundamentals! Trade looks likely to remain rangebound until US harvest gets well into harvest or a S American weather problem emerges.
- The trade is watching the steady stream of internet updates from the Pro Farmer crop tour via social media. Traders are leaning to smaller US corn yield than USDA and larger soybean yield. Yet, export demand for Gulf corn, soybeans and wheat is cooling. Funds are exiting shorts in corn, but are flat in wheat and sellers of soybeans. It appears that the market has any real trend heading into this week’s close.