- Chicago soybeans were lower at midday following a surprise boost in crop rating, grains were close to unchanged. Rarely, if ever, do crop ratings improve into harvest, more usually we see a decline in rating, this alongside the continuing “stellar” yield reports is placing the “big crop” supply argument stand head and shoulders above the “big demand story”. FC Stone put soybean yield at 52.5 bushels/acre, which if realised would add another 100 million bu to US end stock all other elements remaining unchanged. Corn held up well despite FC Stone’s yield update at 175.2 bushels/acre although we would point out that they are more often than not above NASS’s October published figure.
- Egypt has managed to elicit nine offers in its latest wheat tender, a big improvement on previous forays into the market, maybe showing that trust is creeping back into their supply chain. We have not received any purchase confirmation, and the cheapest offer was Russian at $177/mt some $7/mt above morning quotes!
- Funds near record net short position in corn established in early September largely accounted for this year’s build in stocks. Now it’s all about fine-tuning crop size and measuring export potential. We look for steady/higher grain prices into late year, though we’d be careful in holding long position amid so far favourable weather in S America. The issue in soybeans is whether NASS prints a 52 plus bu yield next Wednesday?