- The weather community over the last week or so has been abuzz over a cooling equatorial Pacific and rising odds that La Niña will be established through winter and early spring. Indeed, forecasts have trended such that La Niña is fully expected, but just how long it lasts will be important to 2017/18 yield potential. NOAA will release its updated seasonal climate and drought outlooks on Thursday morning, and we expect much of the text to center on La Niña odds and duration.
- Chicago markets are lower today as the trade saw and digested strong weekly export sales data; it feels as if there is a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” type of mentality at present and choppy price action is anticipated going forward.
- The US weekly export sales figures saw soybean totals at 74 billion bu up 22 from last week with meal at 398,000 mt, the largest since March and compares with 225,000 mt this week last year. Corn sales were 40 million bu vs. 34 last week whilst wheat sales were 19 million bu up slightly from previously.
- Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates totalling 270,282 mt, which brings the season total to 8.3 million mt. This is 1.12 milion mt (15.65%) ahead of last year. Barley exports for the week reached 64,462 mt, which brings the season total to 1.28 million mt, which is 2.84 million mt (68.9)% behind last year.
- Whatever is happening right now appears to be having minimal market impact, the next key fundamenta input will come from S American weather.