- Price action in Chicago markets can be best described as listless with wheat, corn and soybeans all just in positive territory as we write this. The US$ is pretty much unchanged, crude oil is down just over half a dollar/barrel and volumes are weak, almost as if market participants are bored with the whole thing!
- Egypt’s GASC has issued a further wheat tender, results are not yet published, with the lowest offer once again from Russia on an FOB basis. The offer lineup is said to include one US offer although it is expected that it will be rejected on a CIF price basis. The growing lineup of offers suggests that confidence in Egypt as a destination/trade partner Is growing.
- US physical cash ethanol margins continue positive and with Brazilian cash ethanol prices rising, the potential for US exports remains buoyant and the likelihood of solid corn grind into winter remains, which is positive for corn prices.
- The S American weather forecast earlier today was a touch drier in N and W Argentina, which is needed following recent rainfall. Moisture will exit Buenos Aires in the next 24 hours, and a lasting period of dryness develops thereafter. Corn planting should stay well ahead of last year. Otherwise, a pattern of light but near-daily showers continues across C and N Brazil. Two decent systems are offered to S Brazil in the next 10 days. Producers in N Brazil, especially, have cheered recent rainfall!
- Chicago has seen corn and wheat fail to breach technical resistance although we continue to remain reluctant to turn bearish on the news. Even at current prices, US Gulf corn is the world’s cheapest through to February and it should be noted that Gulf wheat better competes against Black Sea basis $4,00-$4,10 basis Chicago futures. The outlook continues choppy with direction unconvincing at best for now.