- Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates totalling 243,580 mt, which brings the season total to 8.54 million mt. This is 967,407 mt (12.6%) ahead of last year. Barley exports for the week reached 4,315 mt, which brings the season total to 1.28 million mt, which is 2.9 million mt (69.3)% behind last year.
- Chicago markets are trading up again as we write this (earlier than usual) in a continuation of overnight price action with soybeans higher in technical trade, corn rallying with the beans and wheat also higher in line with higher global levels. The soybean complex is experiencing an upside breakout in meal on the back of a global growth theme, which it seems is the current mantra from some of the funds. Clearly the market is looking beyond the short term supply glut and focus is switching to a more macro outlook and fund managers are reported to be taking a more bullish stance on many commodity markets in the face of an improved demand outlook across the globe.
- Similarly in corn the short term supply situation has been moved to the back burner and the fund net short position, unlike soybeans, could well provide further upside impetus if December futures close above the 100 day moving average at $3.55, the market is currently trading higher, and funds decide to cover.
- In wheat, as the month end approaches, we have to watch to see if the funds decide to cover their short positions, or whether they will try to defend their shorts. Doubtless Egypt’s large purchase this week has given the market a “shot in the arm” and we are witnessing the outcome right now.