- Egypt’s GASC tendered for wheat once again, this time for end January 2017 shipment. They secured 360,000 mt with their first purchase of the season from Argentina included in the deal. The deal was concluded at an average price of $197.52/mt basis C&F, with Russia awarded 180,000 mt, Argentina 120,000 mt and Romania 650,000 mt; one of the Argentine cargoes was the cheapest at $196.53/mt basis C&F. Worthy of note is that the overall price average was almost $5.00/mt below the last tender at the end of November.
- Chicago markets are approaching the close with the grains, corn and wheat in negative territory and soybean just in the green. It seems that soybeans have failed to continue to decline as fund managers are reluctant to add to sales today in the wake of recent trades. Much of the recent decline and liquidation has centred on January futures, which will move into delivery next week. Grains are sagging on slowing demand. The month, quarter and year end are all pressing the markets into stagnation as holidays, P&L’s and bonuses rear their heads. European wheat markets are similarly starting to move towards a standstill as traders head for an extended holiday break.
- Rainfall remains in the forecast for much of Argentina in the coming five to seven days and this will likely limit trade to its recent ranges.
- Bird flu continues to expand across SE Asia with the price of eggs and poultry meat rising sharply. The H5N6 outbreak has culled a record 20 million birds so far. Most in SE Asia fear that the cull number could reach as much as 30 million birds if the incidence of the disease does not soon slow. Some are estimating that such a dramatic cull of poultry could reduce corn consumption by at least 90 million bu.
- Dull is the session with funds selling corn as the market pushes below key moving averages. The soybean market is holding on grain/soybean spreading and modest cash connected buying in soybean oil. The Chicago market just seems to lack conviction ahead of the holidays. Traders are closing out positions as they look forward to 2017. NE Brazil accounts for 15% of the soybean crop with some dryness worries there offering some support. We continue to doubt that rallies or breaks will be able to be sustained into the holiday break.