• Chicago markets have started the week on the defensive with losses across the board as we enter the final 30 minutes of trading. Volumes have been reasonable and weather models offer a favourable shift in Argentina as the week unfolds as well as forecasting soaking rains across NE Brazil in the early to mid-February period. Early soybean harvest in Mato Grosso (largest producing state) has been slow but yields have been described as “solid”. Similar yields are being quoted across Goias in C Brazil.

• Market one-liners today:

Soybean markets are holding onto huge weather premiums and soybean meal remains overpriced.
Corn traders see good weather in S America and are wary of concerns with Mexico.
Wheat markets will struggle to hold support levels if other grains move lower.

• It seems that weather premium is being extracted from markets today, and we will doubtless see additions and subtractions over the course of the next four or five weeks into early March. As important from a market perspective will be yield reports from Brazil. Neutral market views are our stance right now until such time as we see just how well, or otherwise, S American yields have fared and how their exports pan out in early springtime.