- Turnaround Tuesday has not materialised as we have seen a more stable day of trade in Chicago markets. Despite improved weather in Argentina there remains a debate in the soybean complex as to whether S America’s surplus will meet or even exceed increased global demand, and thereby whether the US will have to fill any gap in world trade. The key indicator will be global cash prices, which have not rallied since early January. This is a key point to watch going forward.
- There is little fresh news today, certainly nothing market changing and it is far too soon to assume we are about to see a US export collapse on the back of S American surplus production. Also our view of cash markets suggests the US will see export volumes continue at least through February.