- Markets eased Monday as adverse weather fears started to ease not only in the US but also FSU regions and crop prospects, and potential global restocking, weighed on prices. US crop planting progress was expected to see a further improvement as dryer conditions have permitted further fieldwork. Official data will be released later today, and we will forward this when available tomorrow.
- In Russia the AgMin reported that they expect the 2013/14 grain crop to reach 95 million mt as a result of timely rainfall. Of this, 54.5 million mt is expected to be wheat, a bigger tonnage than forecast last week by SovEcon (50 – 52 million mt). Ukraine’;s AgMin forecast their 2013/14 grain crop at 53 to 54 million mt, a 17% improvement year on year. Grain exports were forecast at 25 to 27 million mt, up from 23 million mt year on year. The wheat crop was seen at 20 million mt, an increase from 15.8 million mt year on year. Exports of wheat are anticipated as high as 9 million mt, an increase from 7 million mt year on year. The good news is that the export season will start without restriction, or at least that is how things look right now! Ukrainian corn output is seen at a record 27 to 28 million mt, an increase from 20.9 million mt year on year, and exports are seen as high as 14 million mt.
- Harvest is under way in Russia some two or three weeks early with initial out turns looking good and prices reported to be declining fast. Contrastingly, in Europe we are seeing a return to cooler sand wetter conditions and the prospect for harvest is that it will be some two or three weeks later than normal. Paris wheat futures markets hit their lowest level in almost a year in thin trade.
- We look forward to Wednesday’s USDA monthly WASDE report although at this time we expect little in the way of market turning surprises.