The day dawned firmer today as US markets opened modestly higher after seemingly reversing recent declines last week. The big question being asked by many is, “have we seen the season and harvest lows?” There is a good case to suggest the answer is yes given the firm US cash markets with basis premiums at, or close to, record levels.

Nearer home we see Syria purchasing 100,000 mt of wheat from the Black Sea, some of the few remaining cargoes available for nearby delivery and possibly one of the few origins prepared to supply given the difficulty Syria will be experiencing in the finance world right now.

In Russia we continue to hear of opposition to any ban on grain shipments but domestic prices will ensure that any offers will be uncompetitive if made at all. Domestic prices continue to rise despite sales of intervention grain and we question what action will be taken in order to control food price inflation in coming weeks and months. To add to the nation’s woes, conditions remain particularly dry in the south and also in Ukraine.