- Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates totalling 482,344 mt, which brings the season total to 6.43 million mt. This is 1.24 million mt (23.8%) ahead of last year. Barley exports for the week reached 84,012 mt, which brings the season total to 1.18 million mt, which is 2.12 million mt (63.3)% behind last year.
- Midday saw Chicago markets mixed with corn lower, soybean higher and wheat stuck somewhere in the middle. Moderate to (in places) heavy rains are expected to hit the W Cornbelt over the weekend, and radar images are already showing clusters of storms in E IA and W IL, although weather models do show some disagreement over how much rain may actually fall. The detail has low levels of confidence and this will have to be watched to ensure that any risk issues are not missed. Rainfall levels of 3 to six inches should not be ignored at this stage in the season because they may just lead to quality issues later on.
- Delta soybean yields have proved slightly disappointing and any ongoing wet weather pattern may prove an obstacle in bridging tight old crop to abundant new crop supplies, and short term may impact cash premiums.
- The US$ is lower after the Fed failed to raise interest rates and price support has been noted at last week’s low, but it has to be said that the Fed’s refusal to move rates is being seen as disappointing. Crude oil is $1 higher with gasoline and ethanol following.
- Egypt’s GASC has reported that it received four offers in its tender today with prices in a wide range and we would expect that they will have to pay up, at a premium, until the market is confident on the ergot policy resolution.
- In summery, unlike Argentina this spring, follow up heavy rains are not indicated, and so heavy yield or quality loss is not expected. We maintain that traders need to stay nimble through harvest. Next week’s weather forecast, and weather precipitation in early October, will be key to price direction.