- Chicago markets have been somewhat lacklustre today and the week’s price break has doubtless uncovered export demand within the US and we continue to question by how much these markets can rally during the peak US harvest period. There appears to be little sign of the trend in soybean yield changing, and C Plains results continue to be reported as excellent.
- Chinese soybean demand remains solid with some 344,000 mt sold (as per US daily reporting system) and it has been reported separately that upwards of 30 cargoes have been secured by China from the US and S America through to springtime. The supply driven price weakness is uncovering demand below market – unsurprisingly!
- The US reporting system also showed 1.6 million mt of corn sold to Mexico of which a million is for 2016/17, the fourth largest single sale on record.
- Weather forecasts remain generally favourable for continuation of the uninterrupted harvest through to late next week, which is good news for the growers and overall crop output.
- Our summary remains little changed with big corn and soybean supplies in the pipeline, which are capping rallies. End users have (and will likely continue to) extend coverage on breaks, and this pattern looks likely to continue until mid-October with neither the bulls or the bears able to take the upper hand – unless some fresh fundamental input emerges.