- We have had another week of “in at one end, and out at the other” with corn imports hitting 420,000 mt for the week (12 million mt year to date!) and weekly wheat export licences totalling 495,314 mt. The year to date total has now reached 26.573 million mt, which is 7.931 million mt (42.5%) ahead of last year. The weekly run rate required to reach the USDA’s 29 million mt is reduced once again, this time to 269,639 mt/week for the next nine weeks.
- Trade in Paris has followed the rain in Europe rather than Plains dryness, and it feels as if old crop cash premiums are strongly hinting of some significant tonnages still to come out. There are more reports of 2012 stocks remaining on farm and the pace of corn imports continues to displace wheat in feed rations, which exacerbates the situation. Clearly EU SnD’s are wrong right now!
- Ukraine unrest, which shows little sign of abating, is having no visible impact on either old or new crop Black Sea markets. Buyers are scarce and toughing out the inverse as long as they can (or dare) in the face of what continues to look like bearish new crop SnD’s. MATIF markets are closed tomorrow as is the Black Sea market, and holidays will ensure quiet trade in the next ten days.
- Away from Europe, there is much talk of China requiring and US corn or products that enter the country be certified free from MIR 162, the non-approved GM event. This new step strongly suggests that Chines approval of MIR 162 is far from imminent, and perhaps more importantly, it may seriously impact DDG imports from the US. To date there appear to be no US parties willing to offer MIR 162 free certification. This appears, yet again, to be another step by China to slow or stop corn and product imports in the face of large domestic corn stocks, the country is reportedly awash with the stuff and prices are beginning to slide – fast.
- Weather in the US is forecast warmer with showers moving back into the Plains and W Midwest late next week. The warming trend will allow farmers back into the fields and planting should push on rapidly in what looks set be be an extremely active week. The good news lies just around the corner with all key forecasts suggesting a significant warm up which will firm soils and increase evaporation levels, which is currently needed.