- In good old “turnaround Tuesday” fashion, we see US markets closing tonight lower as funds decided to sell as harvest data continued to surprise to the upside with better than expected yields. As we have reported previously, harvest pressure appears to be carrying the day (today). We see some wet weather in the US forecast, which will slow harvest progress, but this appears to be limited, and there appears to be limited risk of freezing conditions for the next week or so.
- The US spring wheat harvest has surprised, to the upside, as N Dakota yields hit 46 bu/acre, which equals the 2009 record. Cool summer conditions are reported to be responsible for improved yields.. N Dakota is significant insofar as it is the US’s second largest wheat state after Kansas.
- Closer to home, Stratégie Grains have forecast EU soft wheat imports to decline in 2013/14 to 3 million mt, some 600,000 mt below 2012/13 despite more competitive prices from Black Sea origins. However, the volume available from Russia and Ukraine is unlikely to become a major import threat at this time because of the initial high export volumes seen this season.
- Lack of official data from the “closed” USA coupled with a quiet EU market, which is heading to the European Bourse towards the end of the week, means we will be in for an unsurprising week of lacklustre data.