- Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates totalling 540,869 mt, which brings the season total to 5.494 million mt. This is 1.454 million mt (36%) ahead of last year. Barley exports for the week reached 39,079 mt, which brings the season total to 1.021 million mt, which is 1.712 million mt (62.65)% behind last year.
- US export data will be published tomorrow, a day later than usual due to the holiday closure on Monday.
- Chicago is once again a mixed picture with the grains, corn and wheat higher and soybeans trading just in negative territory. There is little market moving fresh news again, and the market is awaiting the USDA report data. Average trade guesses feature a lower corn yield next week (173.4 vs. USDA’s 175.1), and a slightly higher bean yield (49.2 vs. USDA’s 48.9), and early harvest results display the same trend so far. Soybean yield potential is very good; corn yields have been lower than expected although it’s far too early to determine a nationwide trend.
- Egypt’s ergot saga continues. Today, Romanian exporters say a cargo of wheat wasn’t rejected this week but rather the exporter declined to ship based on Egypt’s change in quality specifications. Similar battles over Egyptian wheat shipments will continue until the policy is changed, and note that another cargo of Russian origin has been moored off Egypt since July.
- Clearly all eyes are on the upcoming report and pre-report positioning is evident. The supply debate will focus upon a corn yield of 170-175 bu/acre and soybean yields of 48-51 bu/acre. Barring any major surprises or upsets it seems that fair value for soybeans is in the $9.50-$10.50.bu range whilst corn at $3.20 to $3.60 into late year. Doubtless export sales will become as important supply in coming days and weeks.