- Chicago markets start the week in the green as corn, wheat and soybeans push close to last week’s highs. Big crop mentality continues to overhang the market and cash sellers are around to place a cap on any strong upside. It should not be forgotten that the US corn harvest will begin before too long in the Delta and midwest producers are keen to empty storage bins before new crop price pressure eliminates any remaining old crop premium.
- Friday’s report will be watched closely for record large corn and soybean output, which if absent may well trigger price reaction. There are some who are looking for output some 5% above previous bests although we are, at this time, doubtful of such large upside. The main question is, “How BIG is BIG?”
- Initial crop size is awaited from Friday s report and, again, August is seasonally a weak period for agri markets. However, China’s recent interest in soybeans, along with record soybean export shipments, should not be ignored. We should all keep in mind that the US will be the world’s only soybean supplier through to early 2017, with the Gulf corn market becoming increasingly competitive, and all that comes with it.