• Chicago futures are mixed at midday, with beans up, wheat down and corn caught between. It is more of the same in US wheat futures as the US$ rallies to new weekly highs and US wheat export sales this and next week will be routine and limited to traditional buyers. We have previously highlighted that Russia’s dominance will likely not continue beyond early December, but the market needs a steady flow of export news to maintain rallies.

• This week’s EIA report is neutral crude and supportive ethanol and corn. US ethanol production through the week ending last Friday totaled 311 million gallons, up 10 million on the prior week and the highest since late August. Weekly ethanol stocks fell to 953 million gallons, down a hefty 50 million on the week and the lowest since mid-September. A combination of large domestic blending and exports is suspected. Weekly ethanol stocks/use fell sharply, and ethanol futures look to be scoring a seasonal bottom. Crude stocks less strategic reserves last Friday totaled 426 million barrels, up another 3 million from the prior week and up 32 million barrels from late summer. Crude stocks continue to recover, though remain 6% below this week a year ago. We caution against turning bearish energy markets as spot WTI nears oversold territory. Indonesia and Brazil have plans to boost biodiesel blending mandates. Indonesia is targeting mandatory use of B20 in all machinery. Brazil’s National Council for Energy Policies has proposed boosting biodiesel blends from 10% to 15% by 2023 at the rate of 1% per year. If realised this could have a major effect on Brazil’s biodiesel production in the years ahead.

• Australian wheat replacement costs are rising again as deliveries to major elevators are lower than expected. Replacement price in S Australia, a major exporting state, this week is pegged at $8.35/bu.

• The midday central US weather forecast has turned abruptly colder in the 11-15 day period, though confidence in this is lacking. Other model guidance is broadly warm in November, and the EU release this evening will be monitored. Otherwise, the GFS maintains a welcomed drier pattern beginning late next week, with precipitation in the 8-15 day period to be rather light/scattered in nature. Any rain/snow that does fall in the extended period will favour the E Midwest. Soaking rainfall of 2-3” will impact the Delta/Southeast, IL, IN, OH and PA today through next Mon/Tues.

• Rallies in corn and beans will struggle as the trade moves closer to analysing S American supply and demand. New wheat sales would not be advised as interior Russian prices rise, wheat futures near oversold territory, as fund length has been liquidated. Note that the number of long spec wheat positions in Chicago is the lowest since the spring of 2016.

• Chicago futures at midday are weaker by varying degrees. Wheat is leading the way down, though there is little fresh wheat-specific news. Coming rainfall in Argentina will stabilise yields there, following modest reductions by private firms in recent weeks, and Argentine fob offers are highly competitive for early 2019 delivery. The US$ is also eyeing August’s high at 97 points. Otherwise, major exporter currencies are little changed, if a bit stronger in the Russia and S America. As such, today’s decline in wheat will again put Gulf offers below EU/Black Sea origin for Dec-Feb.

• It is clear following Egyptian results last week that US wheat competes for non-traditional business at $4.95-5.15, basis spot Chicago. The market needs to see a more steady flow of export demand to rally further, but we highly doubt Russian cash prices can trade lower between now and early 2019. Ruble strength is further restricting exporter margins. We also mention wheat and soybeans are again nearing oversold levels.

• Brazilian soybean planting this week is estimated at 64% vs. near 50% last week and 43% on this week in 2017. The Brazilian forecast next week may be a bit too wet, with accumulation Nov 5-13 pegged at 4-8” in Mato Grosso, Goias and Parana. Newly planted crops will be well watered though.

• Wednesday’s weekly EIA report should include a modest boost in US ethanol production and a sixth consecutive build in weekly crude stocks. Ethanol margins, basis futures, remain depressed. Brazilian ethanol prices are down slightly this week but maintain a sizeable 33% premium to US Gulf origin. Brazil will ramp up corn-based ethanol production moving forward, but in the near term Brazil’s sugarcane harvest looks to be at a 12-year low. Official monthly biodiesel production (in August) will also be released Wednesday. WTI crude is down $0.75/barrel at $66.30. Lows in early and midsummer were posted at $63.50-64.50. EU milling wheat futures look to settle €1.50/mt ($.05/bu) lower.

• The central US weather forecast has eliminated chances for meaningful snowfall across the Dakotas and Western Midwest into Nov 14 but otherwise is little changed. A more active pattern of rainfall begins in the next 24 hours. Moderate to heavy rainfall favours the Delta/Southeast and Eastern Midwest Thurs-Sat. The heaviest totals, 1-3”, will favour AR, TN, KY, IN, OH and PA. Two additional systems will favour the Eastern US in the 6-15 day period, with excessive totals possible in MO, IL, IN and OH.

• Corn and beans are stuck in range unless S America’s climate pattern turns hot/dry in Dec/Jan. Wheat is too cheap below $5.00 amid steady world cash prices, rising interior prices in Russia and amid lingering heat and dryness in Germany, Poland, Ukraine and Russia.

• Overnight strength in soybeans faded just after the morning open and technical selling kept the market lower into late in the day. Soybean export inspections hit a marketing year high of 48 million bu, and the USDA announced sales of 120,000 mt to unknown destinations, all of which had no noticeable effect on Chicago trade. After the close, NASS reported that the US soybean harvest had advanced 19% last week to 72% complete. This was the largest advance of the year, and the most for late October since 1986. However, there remains a significant amount of work to be done in the Northern and Western states. Kansas at just 42% complete was still more than 28% behind average. IA moved its harvest forward by 35% last week to 71%, while IL leads the Cornbelt at 86% complete. Slow exports and the advancing harvest continue to weigh on Chicago soybean trade, with next support for January near $8.30.

• Chicago corn futures ended fractionally lower amid limited corn-specific news. US harvest progress as of Sunday reached 63% complete, a bit below the longer term average but compared to 52% on this week a year ago. Another week of active fieldwork lies ahead for Plains, but delays return to the Southern and Eastern Midwest. Harvest is 50-77% complete in IN, OH and PA. Cash prices in Ukraine continue to erode amid better than expected yields. There is talk that final production there may reach 33-34 million mt, vs. USDA’s 31. This additional supply will likely be sent directly to export markets. Consequently, the USDA’s total world corn trade forecast seems slightly too low, but Black Sea, US and S American corn are all available to importers for late-year delivery. The University of IL pegs new crop corn seeding at 91.1 million acres, up 2 million, based on expected returns. This is noticeably below prior trade expectations. Wheat, small grains and cotton are favoured with expansion in 2019/20. Work maintains that spot corn is stuck between $3.65-3.85. The issue in the near term is whether NASS’s Oct yield is realised.

• US wheat futures moved little in either direction. Egypt’s buying of US wheat last week confirmed that a secondary bottom has likely been posted, while a further surge in value requires better export demand on a weekly basis. Gulf HRW is offered at parity with Russian for Dec arrival, basis fob. We expect the US and EU markets to battle for world market share over the next 90 days as Russian sales and shipments slow. Funds bought a net 2,000 contracts in Chicago. Interior Russian wheat prices continue in a broad bullish trend, and close attention will be paid to miller/livestock feeder sentiment there in the weeks ahead. US winter wheat crop conditions were put at 53% good/excellent, vs. 52% on this week a year ago. This is a bit lower than expected, but very close to the 10-year average. We would note that good/excellent rating in KS is pegged at 42%, vs. 55% a year ago. Slowly but surely the US will attract additional non-traditional export demand.

• Domestic wheat prices in Russia this week are again steady to higher. Prices near ports are up very slightly, but further inland prices continue to soar relative to early 2018 lows. Sourcing high quality interior wheat will be more difficult, and seasonally interior Russian wheat prices move higher into early the following year. We strongly doubt Russian fob offers fall much, if at all, through the remainder of the marketing year.

• Ag markets are mixed at midday, with grains steady and beans down 5-6 cents. The US$ has rallied further and looks to settle at the strongest level since August. US job growth in October will be released Friday morning. A strong showing will keep the US$ as a safe haven investment. The €uro is testing last week’s lows.

• US exporters sold two cargoes of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2018/19 delivery. Other fresh news is lacking. US export inspections through the week ending Oct 25 included 26 million bu of corn, vs. 40 million the prior week and expectations for 35-45 million bu. Wheat export inspections totalled a routine 14 million bu, unchanged from the prior week. Soybean inspections were 48 million bu, vs. 45 million bu the previous week and the highest of the marketing year so far. For their respective crop years to date, the US has shipped 338 million bu of corn, up 69% from last year; 269 million bu of soybeans, down 41%; and 316 million bu of wheat, down 23% from this week in 2017. Mexico has been an abnormally large buyer US beans, but pace analysis suggests the USDA’s total US soybean export forecast is too high. Note that amid this season’s record pace of planting in Brazil, early season soy exports there will begin in very early February.

• Brazilian soybean planting last week reached nearly 50% finished, and should hit 60-65% complete this week. Normal rain continues across Central Brazil into the weekend. There are hints of a more pronounced boost in soil moisture in the 8-15 day period. Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias (which when added together account for some 50% of Brazil’s soy crop are targeted with rainfall of 3-5” in the period Nov 9-12.

• The trade’s average guess on US soybean harvest rests at 70% complete, with corn at 64%. Winter wheat conditions, the first of the season, are estimated at 53-55% good/excellent, vs. 52% in late Oct a year ago.

• The midday central US weather forecast is little changed. A rather stagnant pattern lies ahead, with dryness and near normal temperatures to continue across the Plains and far Western Midwest. Cooler temperatures and moderate but steady rainfall occur across the Delta/Southeast and Central and Eastern Midwest. Low pressure will linger aloft the Great Lakes region over the next ten days. Overnight lows in the 30s will be more common across the Northern and Eastern Ag Belt beginning this weekend. Cumulative precipitation (mostly rain) into Nov 12 is pegged at 2.0-3.5” across IN, OH, OH, TN and KY.

• Egypt’s buying US wheat last week is a big deal, longer term. Gulf HRW this evening will maintain discounts to Black Sea origin for Dec-Feb arrival. We also wonder if world millers/end users will be more active in extending wheat coverage as deferred Russian offers stay at elevated levels. Wheat will likely gain on corn/beans into late year.

• Ag markets are higher in Chicago, with wheat recovering all of Thursday’s loss and more. Grain futures on Thursday were oversold, and US Gulf wheat is now highly competitive in the world market. Note that a full 8 months of wheat’s international trade year remain. EU wheat futures in Paris are up €3/mt.

• Cargill this morning offered Egypt two cargoes of US SRW at $219/mt, the cheapest of all wheat offered to Egypt. Ultimately Egypt is likely to buy Russian/Eastern European based on cheaper freight. But, this is a sign that the US will now compete for non-traditional destinations moving forward, particularly below $5.20, basis spot Chicago futures. Interior Russian prices will be updated later today. And we mention the EU/Black Sea forecast has trended steadily drier this week. Rainfall across Ukraine and Southern Russia will total just 20-40% of normal into November 10.

• This morning’s meeting between Russian official and exports was rather brief and lacking in fireworks. Russian wheat shipments will be ongoing, but it is likely the USDA’s export forecast of 35 million mt is 1-2 million too high. The Russian government will monitor quality and exports closely moving forward. This is just more of the same, but the market is acting to reallocate world market share amid unchanged Black Sea fob offers and falling EU/US prices.

• We estimate that this morning managed funds’ position in Kansas/Chicago wheat combined was a net short 35,000 contracts. Funds’ combined Kansas/Chicago position hasn’t been net short since April. There is also more talk of disappointing corn yields, which in pockets of the Central US have failed to exceed last year.

• The GFS weather forecast is wetter across the Southern and Eastern Midwest over the next 5-7 days. Rainfall coverage late next week has been expanded to include E KS, MO and the whole of IL, with totals there pegged in a range of 1-2”. Heavier totals will favour KY, IN and OH. This won’t be a major issue for national harvest progress, but it is unlikely that the E Midwest will finish harvesting corn/beans prior to the first week of November. Light snow is forecast is N IL, WI and MI, but confidence in this is low. Drier weather follows Nov 5-10.

• The wheat market since late summer has been disappointed by routine US export sales and the lack of any move by Russia’s government to really slow down shipments. It is our thesis that the world cash market will simply favour US wheat during the second half of the 18/19 campaign.

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Weekend summary 26 October 2018

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Fund positions disaggregated data

• Ag markets are 7-9 cents lower across the board this morning following another week of disappointing export sales, and pessimistic sentiment surrounding US-Chinese relations. The US Administration awaits a firm proposal from China to resume talks, but this is unlikely to happen any time soon.

• US export sales through the week ending October 18 totalled included just 14 million bu of corn, vs. 15 million the prior and an average of 35 million is needed to meet the USDA’s forecast. Wheat sales were a routine 16 million bu. This matches the pace needed to hit the USDA’s target, but only traditional business was included. Weekly soybean sales totaled 8 million, a new marketing year low and down 3 million from the prior week. Large cancellations are again made by unknown destinations. US bean commitments to China rest at 1.03 million mt, vs. 8.7 million mt on this week a year ago. The only bright spots were decent soymeal (203,000 mt) and oil (26,000 mt) sales. For their respective marketing years to date, the US has sold 844 million bu of corn (up 32% from last year), 774 million bu of soybeans (down 26%) and 461 million bu of wheat (down 17%).

• Disappointing EU and US wheat export demand suggests world trade through October is lagging the USDA’s forecast. The total world wheat trade pie is shrinking, but at current prices it remains that the US (the world’s residual exporter) will ultimately export some 1,100-1,150 million bu. Even this forecast assumes world wheat trade of 178 million mt, vs. the USDA’s 180.

• Producers in Saskatchewan have harvested 92% of their spring wheat crop, with canola harvest at 90%. This reflects a sizeable jump from the prior week. The return of snow lies ahead for the Canadian Prairies, but another 3-4 days of dryness and abnormal warmth are expected in the near term. ICE canola futures have fallen $17/mt since early October. The US$ has scored a new 10-week high.

• The midday central US GFS weather forecast is much wetter and a bit cooler across the Plains in the 8-15 day period. The GFS has been rather erratic this week, and so confidence in its extended solution is low. But in the near term, dryness and near normal temperatures will keep harvest active into the latter part of next week. Beginning Oct 31 low pressure currently aloft Canada sinks deep into the Central US, bringing cooler/wetter air along. Upwards of 9-12” of snow are offered to CO, W KS, NE and SD. This is likely overdone, but an eye will need to be kept on extended range trends in the days ahead.

• Gulf HRW this evening will widen its discount to EU origin through the first quarter of 2019, and widen its discount to Russian origin for Dec-Feb. Wheat futures are oversold, with Dec corn not too far behind. Fundamental wheat data remains supportive. Corn is viewed as cheap below $3.70 in spite of rising Ukrainian yields. Beans need a S American weather issue to trade above $8.75, basis Jan.

• Soybeans traded weaker overnight and ended the day 7-8 cents lower. Chicago Ag markets have had limited news to move prices directionally this week, but harvest is now advancing quickly and the collapse in the US equity market added to the bearish financial market sentiment. Funds on Wednesday were estimated sellers of 10,500 soybean, 7,000 soymeal, and 2,500 soyoil contracts. The EIA will release their monthly Biodiesel Production report next week, with data for the month of August. Estimated biodiesel plant returns during the month averaged $.71/gal, which was the best since 2013 and the highest in 2018. Strong margins continued through September, but the collapse in energy markets produced a break in B100 prices, and estimated returns. Initial support in soybeans is just below the market at $8.45, our view is that the market remains caught in a broad trading in the coming months.

• Dec corn fell 2 cents, thus erasing Tuesday’s rally. Fresh news data included a neutral weekly ethanol update and little else. US weather will be conducive to harvest progress into early Nov, while soil moisture boosts are scheduled for most S American corn areas. More than anything, the market lacks input. Better than expected Ukrainian yield and favourable S American weather, which is expected into late year will likely cap rallies for now. Ukrainian fob basis has fallen sharply as harvest there nears completion. Ukrainian corn is offered at level money with Argentine origin, and both are competing to be the world’s low-cost origin of feedgrain for spot arrival. Gulf corn is still competitive, particularly into Asia. And notice that, seasonally, Black Sea basis scores its bottom during or just after harvest. The US market does face competition nearby, but we doubt higher Ukraine yield materially affects the global corn trade matrix. US export sales are expected in a range of 38-43 million bu, vs. a meagre 15 million sold last week. We do not believe breaks will be long lived.

• Reportedly, an article suggesting the Russian government is not at all concerned about the pace of wheat exports triggered a large tranche of fund selling/liquidation. We cannot chase down the validity of these comments, but it remains the US export sales to date have been limited mostly to traditional buyers. Sales on Thursday should be a routine 15-20 million bu. The US$ ended sharply higher. Work suggests enlarged US export demand in the second half of the crop year remains intact. Gulf wheat is offered below Russian for Dec/Jan. Recall in 2016/17 final US wheat exports were 1,051 million bu despite there being no major exporter production loss. The world cash market is, very slowly, working to re-allocate world trade beyond November. Wheat’s chart pattern needs healing from recent damage, we do not see longer term structural weakness.

• Algeria’s state grain buyer OAIC has bought “around half a million mt” of milling wheat at tender, paying roughly 4% less than last time out, trading sources said Wednesday. OAIC picked up the volume for around $257/mt, according to market sources. Algeria does not publish results of its tenders, but the price is about $11-16/mt lower than its last purchase, with traders speculating France to be the most likely origin for the cargoes. Argentinian wheat can also be delivered, although given the timing of the shipment and pace of progress for Argentina’s harvest, it would make it a less likely candidate. Russian wheat will not feature despite exporters having made overtures to authorities in Algiers, as current quality specifications rule out imports with high bug damage.

• Soybeans were on both sides of unchanged throughout Tuesday and closed 1-2 cents weaker on late day selling. Market news has been light at the start of the week, though November soybeans had support under the 50-day moving average. Soy product markets also ended weak with soyoil following energy markets to deep losses, while meal futures were lightly mixed around unchanged. Soy crush spreads ended down 3-8 cents, with the largest losses noted in nearby spreads. The spot soybean crush spread is well under the highs that were traded last summer, but at $1.43/bu is still record high for late October. Chicago is offering crushers an average margin of $1.30/bu through to May and a $1.23 average to the end of the year. This should keep US crush demand strong in the months ahead. At Tuesday’s low, Nov soybeans were 41 cents under last week’s high. US farmers are not anxious to add to sales at these prices, but rallies will be slowed by large US supplies. Without a China resolution, we see spot soybeans caught in $8-9 range.

• Dec corn settled just above unchanged. Prevailing themes include uncertainty over US yield, rising ethanol export potential, and concern over the pace of Russian grain exports moving forward. Corn will follow wheat should the Russian government move to further slow down wheat shipments. Futures-based ethanol margins are negative. Actual margins in the cash market are modestly above variable costs. The incentive to maximise weekly production has eroded. However, unchanged US ethanol prices and rising Brazilian prices have triggered a rather sizeable premium in Brazil, which will remain a large market for US ethanol in late 2018/early 2019. The US forecast is a bit drier next week, and so a full ten days of active harvest lies ahead. A clearer yield picture will be available by the weekend. Work continues to indicate fair value lies between $3.70-3.85 basis Dec futures.

• World wheat futures ended steady to slightly higher. Strength is noteworthy given plunging macro markets. We look for chart-based support to hold this week in anticipation of a meeting between the Russian government and exporters on Friday. We doubt that Friday’s meeting will bring a change to Russian grain shipment policy, but recall in 2014/15 a tax was placed on exports in Feb. The tax was announced the previous December. Contacts suggest something is needed to slow down Russian exports, but just how this is done exactly is known. Interior prices will be the trigger for an outright cap. Russian interior prices are rising but are not yet at excessive levels. Whether the government intervenes is still very much uncertain, but there is little doubt that Russian stocks are tightening. Russian stocks/use on Nov 1 is pegged at their lowest since 2012. World cash markets are again little changed. Gulf HRW is offered at/below Russian for Dec-Feb arrival.

• China’s swine fever outbreak has passed another milestone with the first cases detected in the southwest of the country and a fresh outbreak in the southeast, the government has said on Monday. According to two statements published by the Chinese ministry of agriculture, swine fever incidents have been reported in the city of Taizhou in the Zhejiang province in the southeast region and another in Zhaotong, Yunnan province, for the first time in the southwest region. The two incidents mark the thirty-fourth and thirty-fifth cities in China to report swine fever this year, with the outbreak first detected in August. The city of Taizhou reported 56 pigs had been found dead in a farm of 2,280 pigs, while in Zhaotong, 545 pigs out of 1,157 pigs across two farms died as a result of the fever. Despite China’s National Grain and Oil Information Centre’s (CNGOIC) claim that swine fever will have only limited effect on soybean meal demand in China, made back in early September, outbreaks have escalated in recent weeks. The market is closely watching the development of this disease in China as the pig industry accounted for more than 40% of China’s total soymeal consumption last year.

• US ag markets are unchanged at midday, and so markets have held up well despite another rather negative macro day. Crude extended its overnight losses, with spot WTI down $3.20/barrel at new lows for the move. The Dow is down 350 points on a series of weak quarterly earnings. World equity markets are following. Questions about world economic growth persist.

• We have also heard that the Russian government will meet with grain exporters on Friday. This meet was originally scheduled for last week. Quite what will be discussed and agreed remains to be seen, watch this space! Why the meeting was rescheduled is uncertain and we have no way of knowing what will come of the meeting. A ban/cap on exports is highly unlikely, but we have highlighted that interior Russian wheat prices have hit two-year highs. Wheat stocks in Russia on Nov 1 are expected to be at a two-year low, with stocks/use tight. Recall that in 2014 the government added a tax on wheat exports, which was announced months in advance. It is the price of Russian interior prices, and pushback from domestic industries, that will potentially trigger government intervention.

• Wednesday’s EIA report should include another boost in US crude stocks. Ethanol production margins remain depressed, and so grind last week is likely to be flat. We would mention that Brazilian cash ethanol prices are up yet again, with a much better pace of US ethanol exports due in late 2018/early 2019.

• The European weather forecast is drier in key parts of France and Germany. Precipitation this week will instead favour the Alps, far Western Ukraine and Central Russia. Some areas will benefit but a large portion of the EU/Black Sea wheat belt will be left dry. Wheat and soy futures have recovered at major chart-based support, with Dec corn again above its 20-day moving average. As expected, neither the bulls nor bears have had much leverage this week.

• The midday central US GFS weather forecast is little changed and still wet in the extended period. Excessive rainfall is not indicated, but 2-3 light/moderate rain events are forecast Oct 31-Nov 6. Accumulations in the 7-12 day period are put at 0.50-1.50”. The heaviest amounts will fall across IA, M N and WI. There is no sign of any shift to bitter cold or meaningful snow over the next two weeks. In the near term, it remains that near zero precipitation is expected across the heart of the corn/soy Belt into early next week.

• The fundamental outlook remains supportive of corn, bullish wheat and bearish beans on rallies. The outlook for S American weather into early 2019 is normal/favourable.

• US wheat futures are down 3-8 cents on regionally beneficial rainfall in Europe and Russia and a stronger US$, while row crops markets maintain overnight strength. Just how widespread soybean damage is will be at issue this week, and funds last Tuesday have been sizable net seller of grains. Managed funds last Tuesday surprised the trade by establishing a net long position for the first time since summer. However, that length was liquidated in the following days. Fresh input is needed to sustain direction in one direction or another.

• Crop quality issues are rarely bullish, but a positive price/basis response can be expected if enough beans fail to meet deliverable grades. A clearer US yield/quality picture will be available by late week. US export inspections through the week ending October 18 included 38 million bu of corn, vs. 40 million in the previous week; 14 million bu of wheat, vs. 17 million the prior week; and 42 million bu of soybeans, vs. 44 million. All were within trade guesses. For their respective marketing years to date, the US has shipped 308 million bu of corn, up 72% from last year; 302 million bu of wheat, down 24%; and 218 million bu of soybeans, down 40% from this week in 2017. US soybean sales and shipments continue to lag the USDA’s already weak annual forecast.

• Syria this morning bought 200,000 mt of Russian wheat at $255/mt, basis cost and freight. This compares to Syria’s last buy of $225/mt in mid-September. Russian exporters continue to find demand, but a trend of higher world wheat cash prices remains intact. Note, too, that Russia’s Ruble has rallied further and is testing late Sep’s high. Russian exporters no longer have access to ultra-cheap domestic supplies. Crude is down $.20/barrel at $68.90. The Dow is down 160 points.

• The midday central US weather pattern is much warmer in the extended period but otherwise little changed. Confidence is rising with respect to the return of soaking Midwest precipitation beyond Nov 1. The GFS has been consistent in this shift in recent days. Other models are beginning to follow. Favourable dryness persists through the week ahead. Beginning next Wed/Thurs the mean position of the Central US jet stream is forced southward. Cumulative rainfall Oct 31-Nov 5 is projected in a range of 1-3”. The heaviest totals, for now, are offered to E KS, MO, IA and N IL. Fortunately, no major snow event is indicated.

• US wheat futures have fallen to test major chart-based support. US Gulf wheat’s position in the world market for Dec-Feb arrival will improve further. Corn and beans are rangebound in the near term.