• Chicago grains turn lower with wheat pacing the decline on Russian cash price doubt; GFS S American weather favourable; Large spread order jostles corn.

• Chicago futures are lower at midday with wheat being the bearish leader. Soybeans briefly rallied above unchanged as meal futures bounced on the meal/oil share spread unwind. The spread had pushed out to 41% resistance before correcting with December soyoil futures targeting the 50-day moving average at $0.4113. This support will have to hold for soyoil futures to stay in a bullish chart-based landscape.

• US wheat futures are lower on rumours that Russian export sources are already offering wheat below the $250/mt floor that was announced late Friday. We have no way of knowing whether the cash rumours are true, and it will take a public tender to prove the whereabouts of the Russian cash market. However, Egypt’s GASC has announced that it will not pay more than $240/mt delivered. The Russian $250/mt floor has produced considerable cash market “uncertainty”.

• There was an 8,000 lot order that was filled in 5 minutes that narrowed the December/March corn spread by 1.5 cents. Barge costs on the IL River are falling amid the recent rain, but the rates are again rising on the lower Mississippi on falling river levels. US corn basis bids are up $.01 with more than 50% of the harvest yet to complete and storage availability tightening. NASS will update US harvest progress on Tuesday due to today’s Columbus Day Holiday.

• Chicago brokers estimate that the managed money has sold 4,400 contracts of wheat, 6,100 contracts of corn, while being flat in soybeans. In the products, fund managers have bought 3,200 contracts of soymeal and sold 4,800 contracts of soyoil.

• The US Columbus Day holiday prevented USDA from updating US daily grain/soy sales or weekly export inspections. Both will be available on Tuesday.

• NOPA will release their September soybean crush and soyoil stocks estimate on Tuesday. We look for a NOPA soybean crush rate of 177 million bu with soyoil stocks of 1,040 million pounds. The soyoil stocks total would be one of the lowest in decades. It is uncertain if NOPA will be able to include the 3 new crush plants that came online in the last 10 days of September, or whether these plants will be included in October. The new plants will increase the supply of domestic soymeal production and likely pressure cash basis bids with the passage of time.

• The midday GFS weather forecast is like the overnight model run in forecasting a nice mixture of rain/sunshine for 2024 spring summer row crop seeding across Brazil/Argentina. Some additional rain is falling at midday for NC Argentina that will improve soil moisture and germination rates. Farmers are looking to become active in seeding first season corn to be followed by soybeans. Cooler temperatures and near to above normal Brazilian rainfall will favour the soy crop. The forecast leans favourable to S American crops with the spring seeding pace to dramatically quicken.

• Money managers wanted to be flat in Chicago grain positions ahead of the US November 5 election. China buyers are starting to avoid US January soybeans amid the fear of higher tariff costs and are securing more expensive Brazilian soybeans on cost confirmation. China is showing no interest in world corn/wheat, a growing concern. The US row crop harvest will push strongly ahead this week amid the dry weather forecast with variable temperatures. Farmers will store as much corn as possible for winter or spring delivery. Producers seem more willing to part with cash soybeans. We see the normal post-harvest rally as being formed early (fund buying) in 2024, in the opening days of October.

• Oct WASDE lacks excitement/leans slightly bearish; Chinese corn imports trimmed 2 million mt; World weather patterns improving.

• USDA’s Oct report is another in a string of unexciting WASDE releases. Adjustment to US and world supply and demand largely matched trade expectations, and we suspect focus returned immediately to improving world weather forecasts. The midday GFS weather forecast maintains an expansion of Brazilian rainfall in the 6-15-day period. Better rain chances are projected across E Ukraine and S Russia next Mon-Thurs. And the GFS forecast is now in better alignment with EU and AI models in projected soaking rainfall across the Plains HRW Belt Oct 20-22. Wheat has been the bearish leader at midday amid the shedding of risk premium.

• US corn yield was raised 0.2 bushels/acre to 183.8. End stocks were cut 58 million bu to 1,999 million as lower carry-in supplies (which was known) and a 25 million bu hike in projected US exports more than offset NASS’s 17 million bu production increase. We note additional yield increases are common in November when yield is raised in both September and October. A final yield at/slightly above 184 bushels/acre is anticipated.

• Total 2024/25 supply in Argentina and Brazil were increased a combined 3.6 million mt amid larger carry-in and as old crop Brazilian exports were adjusted downward 1 million mt.

• Importantly, WASDE trimmed 2024/25 Chinese imports by 2 million mt following China’s absence from the Brazilian market in late summer/early August, and we fear additional cuts will be made to Chinese feed imports over time. Reduced imports have not provided any bullish catalyst for domestic prices, which is a concern. USDA pegs Chinese corn imports in 2024/25 at 19 million mt, but recall China’s commitment to WTO is only 7.2 million mt. The exporter corn balance sheet was left unchanged. Larger S American supplies were offset by tightening balance sheets in Ukraine, Russia, and the US.

• US soy yield was lowered a modest 0.1 bushels/acre to 53.1. Production was trimmed 4 million bu. End stocks were untouched at 50 million bu. It is too early to adjust US 2024/25 US soy exports, but we view USDA’s annual export demand growth of 155 million bu (9%) as high without S American yield loss and an extension of the US export program beyond early spring. China’s 2024/25 soy imports are unchanged at 109 million mt, vs. 112 million mt in 2023/24. China’s weak economic performance is a concern in the world of ag. World soy end stocks were near unchanged at a record 134.7 million mt.

• US wheat ending stocks were lowered 16 million bu to 812 million, but this too was expected following NASS stocks/seeding data on Sep 30.

• US wheat carry-in was lowered 6 million. Feed use in 2024/25 was raised 10 million. No change was made to export disappearance.

• Russian wheat production was cut 0.5 million mt to 82.5. EU production was lowered a full 1 million mt. Ukrainian output was raised 0.6 million mt. World wheat trade in 2024/25 was lowered 0.7 million mt, which is broadly aligned with exporter shipment pace analysis through late September. World and exporter wheat balance sheets were very little changed. The world wheat market is not oversupplied, and we maintain the USDA is a bit too low with its US export forecast, but USDA’s Oct WASDE was lacking in bullish fodder. World wheat stocks were increased 0.5 million mt.

• The midday GFS weather forecast is much wetter in an area nearly perfectly outlining the US HRW Belt, with accumulation of 2-4+” projected Oct 20-22. Confidence in details so far out is low, but the addition of rain into the western US ag belt has been a consistent feature of model guidance in the last 24 hours.

• The lack of a major global demand driver places the burden of rallies onto new supply threats. Dec Chicago corn and Jan beans have fallen below their respective 20-day moving averages, with next support pegged at $4.01-4.07, Dec corn, and $10.13-10.15, Jan beans. Longer term downside risk favours the soy complex.

To download our weekly update as a PDF file please click on the link below:

Weekend Summary 11 October 2024

• Chicago mixed at midday; Wheat gains on row crops; Crude adds risk premium; S American weather unchanged, favourable.

• Chicago ag markets are mixed ahead of USDA’s WASDE, with wheat higher on expanding geopolitical risk, following yet another Russian missile strike on a grain-carrying vessel in Ukraine, and lingering dryness in S Russia, while row crops trade slightly weaker. Export sales in the week ending Oct 4 were solid but have failed to spark real bullish enthusiasm. Improving S American weather and probable hike in US corn yield in Friday’s report are cited. Spot WTI crude at midday is up $2.10 at $75.40 on renewed fears of disruptions to Mid-East production and exports. We see crude at $75-77 as being the upper end of fair value but acknowledges war-based risk does exist. Israeli retaliation prior to November feels unlikely but can’t be ruled out.

• Financial markets are flat. US CPI in September featured growth in price of 2.4%, slightly above expectations and underscores the sticky nature of the labour and energy markets. Most important is that the US dollar was unable to score new lows late September. Debate over future rate cut frequency and intensity resumes.

• US export sales in the week ending Oct 3 included 48 million bu of corn, vs. 66 million the prior week and vs. 36 million in the same week a year ago. US wheat sales were 15.9 million bu, vs. 16.3 million the previous week. Soybean export sales totalled 46 million bu, vs. 53 million the previous week and 36 million the same week in 2023. Demand has been funnelled to the US, but very close attention must be paid to forward Brazilian soy fob premiums, as rain becomes more widespread there and exporters become more comfortable offering soy in the world market for February arrival.

• For their respective marketing years to date, US exporters have sold 695 million bu of corn, up 15% year on year, 443 million bu of wheat, up 19%, and 740 million bu of soybeans, up 4%. We note weekly corn sales must average only 33 million bu/week to hit USDA’s forecast, and wheat sales must average only 11 million. But only wheat exports have the potential to be increased in USDA’s Oct WASDE. It is just too early in the crop year to adjust annual corn forecasts.

• Meal export commitments at the first week of the crop year sit at 4.9 million mt, up 7%. Soy oil commitments total 175 million lbs, quadruple that of a year ago.

• Hurricane Milton has exited Florida, and the midday GFS weather forecast hints at only light rain across portions of the W Midwest over the next 10-12 days. Harvest continues smoothly, but drought/abnormal dryness is now spread across much of the Central US. It is of course not an issue today, but some measure of moisture replenishment is desired across the S and C Plains. Yet more Gulf tropical activity is advertised Oct 20-22. This is much far too out to place much confidence in, but model guidance indicates tropical storm season isn’t yet over.

• The midday GFS weather forecast in S America is nearly exactly unchanged from the morning solution. Showers in Mato Grosso, Goias, and Mato Grosso do Sul will be scattered in nature for another 4-5 days before daily rainfall becomes more common. Precipitation accumulation of 0.75-2.00” blankets most of Brazil in the 6-10-day period. Regionally heavy showers also benefit key areas Cordoba and Buenos Aires next Mon-Wed. S America’s climate pattern is improving. Most notable is that Arg and S Brazil will avoid drought in October despite a cooling equatorial Pacific.

• It remains imperative to use seasonal strength in corn and soy to move along cash sales. Rising Ukrainian corn fob premiums do keep US corn’s export potential bright through winter, but our concern is one of rather weak S American cash markets thereafter. The soy market becomes oversupplied without S American weather issues in Dec-Jan. Wheat still has the best fundamental story as Black Sea geopolitical risk collides with the need for heavy rain in Russia in late Oct/Nov.

• Chicago steady at midday; Enthusiasm lacking; US gasoline consumption rises sharply; S American weather forecast favourable.

• Chicago ag markets are steady/higher at midday in sympathy with Wednesday morning’s positive turnaround in financial markets and so far, initial chart support has held. We note that corn, wheat, and soy have followed normal seasonal price trends somewhat more closely. Seasonal trends do strongly indicate bottoms in late Aug/early Sep, but a more neutral/sideways trend in Oct-Nov as the arrival of new Northern Hemisphere supplies challenge rally efforts. A more two-sided market is forecast until US row crop harvests reach 65-70% complete in late October. Additionally, bullish yield surprises are needed on Friday to re-active speculative short covering in bulk. Exporters sold 126,000 mt of corn to unknown destinations. The recent jump in Ukrainian fob premiums has made US corn even more competitive for autumn delivery.

• The midday GFS weather forecast in S America is consistent in expanding rainfall into Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, and southern Goias beginning Sunday. The coverage of dire dryness in central Brazil will be shrinking rapidly over the next 10 days. The GFS forecast is also consistent in allowing precipitation into Mato Grosso and pockets of far Northern Brazil after Oct 16. The pace of Mato Grosso soy planting progress, updated on Fridays, will be watched but S American weather threats are in retreat. Radar maps show widespread rain currently impacting RGDS and Parana, which account for 30% of Brazilian soy and first crop corn production.

• The Brazilian Real this week is down 2%, which is raising producer revenue. Our fear is that improved farm incomes collide with regular rain to induce the liquidation of old crop Brazilian corn and soy stocks.

• The midday GFS weather forecast is wetter in the Great Lakes region but maintains a widespread/meaningful Central US pattern change stays absent into at least Oct 25. Scattered showers favour WI/MI Oct 19-20, but otherwise the outlook is bone dry throughout the next two weeks. Temperatures cool significantly, with overnight lows falling into the upper 30s/low 40s in E IA, N IL, and pockets of IN, OH, and PA. Crop threats are limited to parts of PA amid advanced maturity elsewhere in the E Midwest.

• Sustained export demand growth is needed to be bullish of corn above $4.60, basis March, and $11.00, basis forward soy contracts. Downside risk in the soy complex Dec onward is sizeable without lasting adverse S American weather. A rising US dollar acts as a weight.

• Chicago row crop futures sharply lower on harvest selling; Crude oil futures down $4/barrel on easing supply fears; GFS weather forecast dry for the Central US.

• Midday Chicago grain markets are sharply lower with corn/soy futures producing the bearish pull on the advancing Central US harvest. Wheat futures are stable on the recent rise in Russian fob prices back to $235/mt which has acted to underpin breaks. The macro’s rallied Chicago values yesterday on the hope for further rally in the Chinese financial markets which did not occur overnight. Chinese economic malaise is the forecast without massive new stimulus.

• Crude oil futures are down $4.00/barrel on easing supply fears as Israel has not taken an attack on Iranian oil infrastructure, and doubts persist that Israel wants to rile the Biden Administration with a sharp rally in gasoline prices ahead of the November 5 US election. The world energy market is under pressure due to slowing demand and expectation that supplies will be at least steady with Saudi Arabia having additional capacity to bring online should Iran’s crude production falter. The world oil market is adequately supplied with the US being the world’s largest producer. This is a far different outlook from the 1970’s when OPEC held G7 nations hostage to sagging supplies and surging costs. Crude oil futures will struggle to rise above $80/barrel.

• Chicago brokers report that managed money has sold 5,100 contracts of corn and 6,300 contracts of soybeans, 1,300 contracts of soymeal and 6,900 contracts of soyoil. Funds have been on both sides of the wheat market and are estimated to be flat in the day session.

• The USDA announced the sale of 166,000 mt of US soybeans to China. We believe (but cannot confirm) that China also booked a few cargoes of Brazilian soybeans with farmers more willing sellers of old crop soybeans (and corn) as drought breaking rains are forecast by the end of October. We look for Brazil to become a more aggressive corn sellers as it makes room for new crop soybean exports in late January.

• China returned from its weeklong Golden Week Holiday to find its grain markets in a downtrend and scoring new 4-year lows on the advancing harvest. Like the US, Chinese farmers are struggling with profit margins with costs staying elevated as Dalian corn tries to hold $8.00/bu. Internal Chinese soybean prices are also under acute pressure which will cause China to slow their soy import pace and look to boost reserve purchases. A bottom in the Chinese corn and soy markets is not expected until the last half of November when the harvest slowly winds down. A year ago, China purchased and imported 16 million mt of Brazilian corn through January. This year, China has purchased just 1 million mt of Brazilian and limited amounts of US corn. We strongly doubt that China will secure world corn until 2025, which will be a blow to world corn trade. Chinese demand is needed, or spot corn futures will drop to $4.00/bu.

• The midday GFS weather forecast is dry across the entire Central US for the next 11 days. This dry weather will allow for corn to dry down and the gut slot of harvest to emerge. The GFS forecast has backed away from breaking out rain in the 10-15-day period other than a few light monsoonal showers across the Intermountain West.  A frost/freeze looks likely across the Central US from October 15-16 which will end the growing season.

• Hurricane Milton is forecast to make landfall early Thursday as a strong cat 3 or a weak cat 4 storm. Milton will hold hurricane status across Florida before it weakens across the Atlantic early in the weekend.

• US farmers are hoping for a bullish report on Friday to add to existing cash sales. Chicago grains ran out of managed money short covering on Monday with soy farmers willing to sell newly harvested beans off the combine. Record yields and the recent rising Chicago was enough for farmers to shed cash length. November soy futures will likely target $10.00 pre report as the Midwest harvest advances. Needed rain fell across Argentina overnight, and the forecast stays wet for N Brazil into late October. Secondary seasonal lows normally form on the Columbus Day holiday.

• Chicago grain futures mixed at midday: China back from holiday Tuesday; Hurricane Milton becomes a Cat 5 storm.

• Chicago grain markets have bounced from early day losses as managed money selling slowed and wheat prices rallied on firming international prices. The Midwest row crop harvest is gaining speed while yield reports stay elevated from weekend results. Midwest corn yield results continue to be surprisingly solid, often well above producer expectations, and traders are anticipating a new record USDA yield to be reported on Friday. Soybean yields are more variable, but good and debate is ongoing as to whether they will be a 0.5 bushels/acre above or below the USDA’s September estimate.

• The macroeconomic outlook with crude oil firmer is producing modest inflows into commodities. This was evident on the opening with the grains unwilling to follow the lower overnight price trend. The widening Israeli war against Iran has the attention of the crude oil market with new attacks feared as the 1-year anniversary of the war is today. The problem is that as US corn yield estimates rise and the price of Ukraine FOB milling wheat and FOB corn are equal at $218/mt, the wheat market will have to score new weekly rally highs for corn to improve. And longer term, the improved S American weather forecast casts a need for grain bulls to see bullish NASS yield data on Friday

• Chicago brokers report that managed money has purchased 3,600 contracts of wheat, 2,600 contracts of corn, 900 contracts of soybeans, and 3,100 contracts of soyoil. Managed money has sold 4,300 contracts of soymeal.

• For the week ending October 3, the US exported 36.7 million bu of corn, 52.6 million bu of soybeans, and 13.3 million bu of wheat. For their respective crop years to date, the US has shipped out 168 million bu of corn (up 30 million or 22%), 123 million bu of soybeans (equal to last year), and 316 million bu of wheat (up 81 million or 34%). It is too early in the US corn/soybean export season to make any pace analysis that is meaningful for the WASDE report on Friday.

• China will return from its weeklong holiday on Tuesday. Traders expecting that China will secure additional corn/soybeans to make up for last week’s quiet holiday purchase pace. We note that China was a buyer of US and Brazilian soybeans last week. Where China as noticeably absent was world corn. Unlike last year, China has not purchased an estimated 15 million mt of Brazilian or US corn. If China does not pick up its purchase pace soon, downward adjustments in China’s 2024/25 world corn import estimate are justified.

• Hurricane Milton has strengthened to a category 5 storm which is taking aim on Central Florida Wednesday afternoon with sustained winds of 160 MPH. Never has a tropical storm intensified so rapidly to a category 5 hurricane. Mass evacuations are underway across the western coastline of Florida with storm surge estimates growing to 12-18 feet which will cause considerable damage.

• The midday GFS is dry across the entire Central US for the next 11 days. This dry weather will allow for corn to dry down and the gut slot of harvest to emerge. The model does break out rainfall in the 12-15-day period across the Plains and the W Midwest, which is a change from recent runs, which is backed up by the EU AI model. Hurricane Milton will push back into the Atlantic as a hurricane and continue east into the Atlantic

• World wheat values must exceed last week’s high if corn is to gather any upside momentum. The improved Brazilian weather forecast has soy futures turning down with soyoil unable to sustain a recovery above $0.46/pound December without a broadening Mideast war or news from the US Treasury Dep’t. that they have approved and detailed the 45Z carbon credit program. Soymeal prices act heavy with fund’s shedding of large market length. Our view is that the grains have limited upside potential without a black swan event like a sharp rise in crude oil values. Soybeans hold a bearish outlook on supply.

• Corn, wheat score newer rally highs; Crude eases on build in US stocks; GFS weather forecast wetter in Argentina.

• Chicago ag markets are mixed at midday, with wheat and corn scoring new rally highs and beans shedding modest premium on weakness in meal. The EU Commission’s proposal to delay deforestation regulations by 12 months has been the catalyst for a trimming of soy crush margins. The EU’s parliament has the final say with respect to EUDR’s implementation, but there is no doubt that there has been sizable pushback from the processing community there. We also note that soaking rain is forecast in key areas of Argentina Oct 8-10, which adds to a projected expansion of Argentine soy planted area.

• Wheat supply issues remain numerous. The midday GFS forecast keeps in place a pattern of mostly dry and abnormally hot conditions in E Ukraine and Russia through Oct 10. Lingering dryness is also present in New South Wales, South Australia, and parts of Western Australia. Chilly temperatures in Southeast NSW are being monitored, with lows overnight there recorded in the upper 30s. An expansion of drought is probable across the US HRW Belt into the second half of October.

• Egypt’s GASC this morning states it has agreed to purchase 3.1 million mt of Black Sea wheat (very probably Russian) in a direct deal, which will feature shipments of 510,000 mt per month into spring. Details are absent, and supplier price/execution risks are sizeable. This adds to an already near record large Russian wheat export program and places more attention on the movement of interior prices. Whether Russian producers become more tight-fisted with remaining 2024 supplies is important given seeding delays and germination issues. Russia has also effectively banned the transshipment of Kazakhstan wheat through Russia, which challenges robust Kazakh wheat shipments into the Mid-East.

• US ethanol production in the week ending Sep 27 totalled 298 million gallons, vs. 292 million the previous week and up 1% year on year. The ethanol industry’s seasonal downtime was short-lived. A slow/steady recovery in weekly ethanol grind is anticipated between now and mid-Dec. We do note ethanol production margins are beginning to get squeezed as cash ethanol prices fail to follow corn higher, which provides additional weight to Dec Chicago above $4.35.

• Energy markets are well off morning highs following confirmation of a build in US stocks, with spot WTI up only $0.25 at $70.05/barrel. US commercial crude stocks on Sep 27 were 417 million barrels, up 4 million on the prior week, and seasonally the US crude balance sheet should loosen into the holiday season. We see value in crude below $65, but Iranian/Israeli conflict is being offset by larger production in other OPEC nations.

• The midday GFS weather forecast is wetter in Central Argentina, where 7-day accumulation is projected at 1-3”. Rainfall of 1”+ will be spread across the entirety of Argentina’s primary ag belt. The GFS forecast remains hesitant on the date and intensity of Brazil’s coming pattern shift. Rain expands into Parana and Sao Paulo beginning Oct 9. Better rain chances don’t reach into Mato Grosso until Oct 12.

• Chicago corn and wheat futures are technically overbought, and we would counsel against chasing this rally higher. Soybeans stay a function of S American weather details, with the timing of Mato Grosso rainfall key. Grains continue to gain on soy unless N Brazilian dryness is extended into late Oct.

• Chicago rallies on expanding Mid-East war; Iran reportedly launches missile at Israel; GFS weather forecast stays wet in Brazil after Oct 9.

• Chicago ag markets are higher at midday, with wheat pacing the rally on firming Russian cash prices, now quoted at $222/mt for Nov, vs. $218 previously, ongoing Black Sea drought and elevated concern over an expansion of Mid-East conflict. Spot WTI crude is up $3.10 at $71.25. Escalating tension between Israel and Lebanon/Iran is cited, with Iran reportedly launching missiles at Israel at midday. Dec Chicago corn touched its 100-day moving average while Dec Chicago wheat tested early Sep’s high of $5.98 before easing slightly. Grains have more easily found new buyers amid rising Black Sea premiums as, unlike in S America, a weather pattern shift in E Ukraine/S Russia is far less certain. We agree with the market in that wheat has the best fundamentally positive story between now and late winter.

• Exporters this morning sold 195,000 mt of corn and 120,000 mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2024/25 delivery.

• US corn export demand cooled in early Sep as the collision of rising Gulf premiums and eroding Argentine/Ukrainian basis provided steep competition into major Asian markets. We note US corn is more competitive Dec onward, which aligns with the need to slow Ukrainian/Russian export shipments following this season’s drought and reports of elevated toxin levels. Similarly elevated toxin levels are noted in Europe. Early corn yield data points to a higher national yield from USDA, but there is also evidence to support robust physical corn export disappearance in the Dec-Feb period. A change in world corn trade flows lies ahead beginning in Nov/Dec.

• Nov corn in Brazil is unchanged at $5.36. Spot canola in Canada has recovered nearly all losses experienced due to China’s anti-dumping probe. US soy crush margins are up sharply as Dec meal trades near $350, with margins in the cash market calculated at $3.00/bu.

• The S American weather forecast is consistent in keeping central and northern Brazil arid for another 7-8 days but allowing needed heavy showers to expand into Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, and Goias thereafter. Confidence is increasing with the respect to the arrival of normal Brazilian rain in the second half of October.

• The midday GFS weather forecast is unchanged in the US. A pattern of complete dryness and normal/above normal temperatures lie in the offing through Oct 10, and probably beyond. The GFS forecast flirts with additional tropical storm activity in the eastern US Gulf Oct 6-7, but otherwise additional hurricane landfalls are not indicated. Rain is needed across the HRW Belt, but it is possible the US row crop harvest will be completely unobstructed over the next two weeks.

• Geopolitical risk is being added. We would caution that corn and wheat charts are nearing overbought levels, and as has been the case since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the market needs to see and feel a disruption to grain flows to sustain rallies. We maintain that corn/wheat outperform the soy complex amid coming rainfall in Brazil and Argentina, which keeps trend soy yields there intact.