• It has been a mixed trading session in Chicago this morning in light volume. Corn and soybeans have firmed into the midday trade while wheat is still holding in the red. The volume of trade has been light with it not taking much volume to push values around. Long wheat/short soy spread unwinding is featured.

• Chicago brokers report that funds have sold; 2,500 contracts of wheat, 1,400 contracts of corn, while buying 3,000 contracts of soybeans, 1,000 contracts of soymeal and 2,800 contracts of soyoil. The double bottom in soyoil prices along with record large biofuel demand has funds looking at new long positions The spot KC wheat/corn spread has narrowed into $1.07 wheat premium, the tightest since major wheat lows where scored in June. The spread peaked at $2.15 KC wheat premium in August and has retreated $1.08. The big question is whether KC wheat needs to become a feedgrain (with world wheat stock/use ratios nearing a record lows and the Russian’s slowing down their export program). UK feed wheat is offered at an equivalent of $233/mt with Ukraine feed wheat offered at $221/mt. US 12% fob Gulf HRW milling wheat is offered at $232/mt or $1/mt below UK feed wheat and just $11/mt above Ukraine offers. KC wheat relative to corn or feed wheat is deemed as cheap. The world is short of hi pro wheat.

• US weekly ethanol production was 1,042 barrels/day vs 1,067 last week. This produced 306 million gallons of ethanol vs 314 million a week ago. US ethanol stocks fell 30 million gallons to 988 million gallons, up 4% from a year ago. US crude oil stocks rose to 447 million barrels, up 4.7 million barrels. However, the 447 million barrels of stock is down 2% from last year. The big question for the US crude market going forward is whether OPEC will trim their production by 1 million barrels/day in their December meeting.

• December Chicago options will expire on Friday and few fireworks are expected.

• The November Cattle On Feed Report was bullish with placements at just 93%, while marketing and the on feed totals were 104%. The placement total was well under expectations and seen as bullish which pushed February futures to resistance at $121-122.00.

• The midday S American GFS weather forecast features heavy and localised flooding rain for N and C Brazil. Rainfall totals of 4-9.00” look to drop across the northern half of Brazil into December 1. The rains could raise disease concern as the soybean crop pushes into the reproductive phase. Near normal rains are expected across Argentina as spring planting accelerates.

• The price decline in wheat makes no fundamental sense, but values are being pushed by ongoing fund selling and bearish chart patterns. Soy futures are rising on wet Brazilian weather and hope for a US/China trade deal next week. Dec corn has bounced off of key support at $3.60. We could be pushed into a bet that the US and China will keep talking after next week’s Trump/Xi dinner as any escalation of trade tensions would further batter the US stock market.

• Tomorrow is Thanksgiving in the US and we will be limiting commentary accordingly.

• It has been a low volume and mixed morning in Chicago with corn/wheat trading either side of unchanged while soy futures push higher. The volume of trade remains restricted by the pending US holiday and US/China trade uncertainty. The market’s focus on US/China trade remains acute. Comments from US National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow to Fox News this morning sparked a sharp rally in Chicago soybeans. Kudlow stated that Trump believes that China would like to have a deal and is optimistic on next week’s US/China trade talks. Kudlow also offered that very detailed talks are ongoing on all levels.

• US comments from Trump/Kudlow on China trade are consistent and argue that the hardliners within the Trump Administration are being silenced ahead of next week’s G20 meeting. A US/China trade deal in 2019 would favour President Trump’s 2020 reelection bid as he can focus on infrastructure and the benefits that his trade deals have provided to farmers/manufactures and the general US working population. Chicago values are acutely focused on next week’s dinner.

• Russian wheat stock data as of November 1 reflect a sharp drop from last year. Wheat stocks in Krasnodor are down 80%, Kursk down 75%, and Stravpol down 70% with Rostov down 62%. The sharp fall in SE Russian wheat stocks in the export corridor means that exporters will have to pull wheat from far western locations. This is likely the reason why Russian interior wheat prices are rising again and will be a growing concern to the Government and their developing livestock industry. Russia has exported 20 million mt of wheat, but its exporters will struggle with winter weather and tight wheat stocks going forward. Although there is talk that Pakistan may subsidise wheat exports, multi-national exporters are doubtful that subsidised tonnages will surpass 750,000 mt to neighboring countries. Last year, Pakistan exported 900,000 mt of wheat from late February into September. The odds are low that Pakistan will offer wheat to the world wheat market until February amid low soil moisture levels and a tightening domestic federal budget.

• US crude oil prices are sharply lower with January futures below $55.00. Sinking crude looks to pressure OPEC into cutting production to support income.

• The midday GFS S American weather forecast is wetter in far Northern Argentina, which is not a major producing area, and unchanged in Brazil. The worry is still centered on excessive rainfall in Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais, which account for some 50% of bean production and 30% of Brazil’s first corn crop. Rainfall does shift northward in the 6-10 day period, but weekly totals upwards of 2-4+” will continue across Central areas. The GFS forecast is drier in Brazil beginning Dec 3, but confidence so far out is low. A string of sunny days is desired.

• Politics drove beans down on Monday and are driving beans higher today. Much will depend upon the language of late November’s Trump/Xi dinner. The odds are that both sides will keep talking, which Chicago will like. US wheat futures are down on fund selling, but Russian prices are rising in the interior amid tightening stocks. With Argentine crop quality being questioned, this is no place to be bearish of wheat as weak long are being flushed out.

• Red with a little bit of green in corn/oats has been the morning in Chicago. The soybean market has paced the decline with wheat in tow. The entire Chicago market has a heavy feel as traders fret about the coming US/China trade talks amid liquidation into December’s first notice day next week.

• There has also been talk that the Pakistan ag ministry has asked the Government for export subsidies to help them export wheat. The request is for $105/mt, which no one seems to know whether it will be approved. However, the market is taking it as bearish as it would potentially be another source of wheat. We note that the Pakistan Ag Ministry request is for 3 million mt of wheat at $105/mt subsidy. The USDA has Pakistan exporting 1.0 million mt with ending stocks at just over 4.0 million of wheat in 2018/19. If the Pakistan Government did just 2 million of export subsidies, it would cut their end stocks to just 3.0 million mt, the lowest stock total since 2013. At this point it is just an ag ministry request and no one seems to know if the Government even has the funds available. Also, Pakistan is a WTO member which could make large subsidised volumes complicated

• US export inspections for the week ending November 15th were; 31.4 million bu of corn, 18.7 million bu of wheat, and 38.8 million bu of soybeans. For their respective crop years to date, the US has shipped out 470 million bu of corn (up 80% on last year and well above USDA’s forecast for a 1% increase), 405 million bu of soybeans (which is down 43% and below the USDA annual forecast for a 11% reduction), US wheat exports stand at 360 million bu (down 18% and well below the USDA’s 14% increase). The corn export total was supportive with wheat/soybeans slightly bearish.

• US ag groups are publicly speaking out against the Brexit plan announced by Prime Minister May as it would assure that the UK keeps restrictive EU farm policy, which the Trump Administration was expecting them to do away with to enter into a new US/UK Free Trade Agreement. All eyes are on the UK and whether Prime Minister May can secure enough votes in Parliament for approval.

• The midday GFS S American weather forecast is wetter in Northern Brazil where upwards of 4-8”” of rain will fall over the next 10 days. Coverage will include much of Mato Grosso and Goias. The GFS has extended the pattern of excessive rainfall into the 11-15 day period. The S American jet stream does move northward next week. This will trigger a needed drier pattern in Southern Brazil and Argentina. This is too much rain even for tropical areas of Brazil. The concern for crops will be an ongoing wet weather flow for December that limits sunshine and raises disease concern for reproducing soybeans. Argentine weather has improved with a drier overall upper air flow.

• It is all about politics and the Trump/Xi meeting heading into the end of November. We understand the bearish US soybean balance sheet, but it only takes talk of a trade deal to produce a sharp rally. We expect that China will agree again to secure an additional $30-35 billion of US ag goods annually, just like they did in May. This would produce a lasting bullish structural change for US agriculture. It is therefore hard to be a bear or bull amid the US/China politics.

• Funds are net short a combined 63,728 contracts of corn, soybeans and Chicago wheat. This position makes sense amid lingering barriers to Chinese imports. The fundamental outlook favours grains over soy into the spring of 2019, but we do expect this net fund position to get to flat (as we have frequently suggested) rather quickly should US-China trade dialogue be positive later this year.

• Jan soybean futures had their highest close in almost a month. The market has rallied on rising optimism that China and the US might resolve their trade dispute. But, even if talks are successful, nobody is projecting a resolution until sometime after January. By then, Brazil will be exporting its record soybean crop. It is unlikely that US exports will see much of a benefit until next autumn. The USDA raised Brazil’s old-crop soybeans by 3 million mt in its November WASDE. However, the Brazilian crushers association ABIOVE pegged exports at 79 million mt. ABIOVE uses a slightly different local marketing year (Jan-Dec) vs USDA’s Feb-Jan but the implication is that USDA’s projection is perhaps 2-3 million mt too low. One Brazilian grain merchant went so far as to project exports of 83 million mt. As of Nov 9, ship lineups indicated that Brazil’s export “commitments” were 81 million mt. That is 15.7 million or 24% above a year ago. USDA is projecting exports will rise just 13%. Without a US-Sino trade agreement, futures are at risk of falling to $8.00 or below.

• Dec corn fell 3 cents amid competing crosscurrents. Concern over the pace of global economic growth continues. Crude ended flat. World cash basis levels are up on the week but unchanged on the day, and competition with Ukraine into Asia will be ongoing in the months ahead. Funds on Tuesday were long a net 18,000 contracts, vs. 27,000 the previous week. Funds today are estimated to be short closer to even. US weekly export sales totaled a decent 35 million bu, up 8 million on the week and right at the pace needed to hit the USDA’s target. Competition for market share is noted, but our supportive thesis centres on world trade as a whole. Using ship lineups, we estimate Oct-Nov combined world corn trade at a record 24.1 million mt. Expensive feed/milling wheat and barley will keep global corn demand strong. There is enough interest to put both US and Ukrainian exports at record levels. The next potentially market-moving event will be the G20 meeting, which begins on Nov 30. Thereafter, it is S American weather. A lasting period of dryness is needed in Argentina, while a drier overall pattern is desired in Brazil. Of note also is that Dec oat futures rallied 6 cents and are once again flirting with $3.00.

• US wheat futures ended steady to higher with KC gaining on other classes. As expected, managed funds were net short (1,000 contracts) in KC on Tuesday, and this evening are estimated to be short closer to 5-6,000 contracts. It has taken nine months, but length in KC has been fully liquidated. A more supportive trend is expected moving forward as major importers begin to seek high-protein coverage for 2019. The US is well positioned to boost market share. There are no details surrounding Saudi Arabia’s tender for 475,000 mt. But also recall Iraq will be in the market on the weekend. Egypt’s last tender was for late Dec shipment, and so we expect Egypt to return shortly. Russian interior prices are higher in US$ terms this week. Replacement value is pegged at $170/mt, and when adding taxes exporter margins remain thin. Seasonal trends in world cash prices are higher through the winter months. We maintain a longer term bullish outlook. Note that any build in new crop exporter stocks require widespread favourable weather next spring/summer.

To download our weekly update as a PDF file please click on the link below:

Weekend summary 16 November 2018

Our weekly fund position charts can be downloaded by clicking on the link below:

Fund positions disaggregated data

• Combined world barley and sorghum end stocks in 2018/19 are projected at a record low 22 million mt. More attention than ever will be paid to rainfall and soil moisture in Eastern Australia this winter, as Australia quietly is the world’s second largest exporter of sorghum. A big crop is needed to fill Aussie’s own domestic feed demand, much less export 1.0-1.5 million mt.

• Chicago futures are mostly higher are midday as corn, soybeans and wheat values climb. The summer row crops have been leading the advance while KC wheat is being pulled along. KC/Chi spread unwinding should be nearing an end with the Saudi wheat tender on Friday being very important for the US/world marketplace early next week. And GASC should be seeing this modest downdraft in world wheat prices as another forward buying opportunity. January soybeans are getting close to key resistance at $9.00 on short covering ahead of the Trump/Xi meeting in Buenos Aries while corn is following.

• Chicago brokers estimate that funds have bought 3,400 contracts of soybeans, 4,900 contracts of corn, and 1,300 contracts of Chicago wheat. In soy products, funds have bought 2,900 contracts of soymeal and 3,100 contracts of soyoil.

• Saudi Arabia issued a tender to secure 475,000 mt of world hard wheat (12.5% protein) for January to March. Russian wheat does not work on specs, so it is down to German, US or Argentina to fill the demand. Most in the EU argue that only a few cargoes of hi pro German wheat are available, not enough following last summer drought. As such, the Americas have a good chance of filling much of the tender demand. The big question is whether Argentine exporters will be willing to sell 12.5% protein wheat to Saudi following the flooding rains of last weekend. Sprout damage is already being reported which will turn an unknown portion of their milling wheat into feed. Argy wheat crop estimates are also in decline to 18-18.5 million mt from 19-19.5 million. US HRW wheat has a good chance to fill a portion of the tender. And, remember that of the 14 million mt of Argentine wheat exports, Brazil plans take at least half at 7.0-7.5 million during 2018/19.

• WASDE head, Seth Meyers, at a Geneva Switzerland grain conference indicated that their 2018/19 US and world soybean export estimates included no new US soybean sales to China and that the US would fill 84-85% of non-Chinese world soybean trade demand. This means that any further cut to US soybean exports have to come from non-Chinese buyers.

• NOPA soybean crush in October totalled 172.4 million bu, a bit higher than trade guesses and a new all-time record, barely edging out March’s 171.9. Soy oil stocks fell to 1,503 million, vs. 1,531 last month and 1,224 million a year ago. Soy oil disappearance is strong.

• The midday GFS S American weather forecast is wetter across Central and Northern Brazil in the 10 day forecast and slightly drier in Northern Argentina. The rains for Central Brazil are adding up and agronomists are starting to worry about disease heading into the vegetative growth and early bloom period. Excessive totals of 6-12” are likely in the next 10 days. So far the weather across most of Brazil has been favourable, but the forecast needs to be watched. A series of ligh/moderate events Nov 22-25 will trigger accumulation of 1-2” across Buenos Aires, Santa Fe and Entre Rios in Argentina. Too much rain in N and C Brazil and Argentina remains the crop worry of the moment.

• Russian wheat exporters are reluctant to sell beyond December amid the fear of an export ban or restriction. January soybeans have resistance above $9.00 and December corn above $3.80.

• It has been a mixed morning with wheat fund liquidation ongoing while corn and beans hold steady. Crude has extended its overnight recovery, with spot WTI up $1.10 and RBOB gasoline up $.03. Ethanol future are flat. Crude’s plunge did on the margin weight on emerging market currencies, but only modestly. Currencies in Brazil, Argentina, Russia and Ukraine are up today.

• Exporters this morning sold 148,000 mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2018/19 delivery. Exporters also sold 212,000 mt of corn to Mexico. Taiwan also secured one cargo of optional origin corn to be sourced from either the US or Brazil.

• The debate in the soy complex now centres on the strength of non-Chinese demand growth moving forward. The USDA of course has given only a fraction of China’s imports to the US. The US is expected to supply up to 85% of non- Chinese world trade. Whether this share of non-Chinese trade grows needs monitoring following the USDA’s massive cut to US soy export demand last week. Another downward revision is not anticipated. Rhetoric surrounding US-Chinese dialogue remains mostly positive. The issue heading into late Nov’s G20 meeting is now infighting between top White House trade officials. Ultimately it is President Trump that decides if the terms of any proposal are acceptable.

• The midday GFS weather forecast is much wetter in Ukraine and Southern Russia in the 8-15 day period. Heavy snow worth 3-12” is forecast through the period, which would imply a moisture equivalent of 0.50-2.00”. We do mention that neither the EU nor Canadian models include this pattern change, but no doubt a blanket of snow would be welcomed there. Contacts suggest wheat conditions are rather variable in Russia. There is a general consensus that much more moisture is needed prior to spring.

• NOPA member crush data on Thursday is expected at 170-171 million bu. This will again be a record for the month and up 6-7 million from last year.

• The midday S American GFS weather forecast is slightly wetter in Argentina in the 6-15 day period. Excessive totals are unlikely, but a series of light/moderate events Nov 22-25 will trigger accumulation of 1-2” across Buenos Aires, Santa Fe and Entre Rios, areas that have been inundated with rain since late last week. A more lasting period of dryness is desired. Favourable weather persists in Brazil. Drier conditions favor Southern Brazil, where it is needed. Daily showers persist across Central and Northern areas along with normal/below normal temperatures.

• Managed funds will be now likely be square in KC wheat following today’s break, while the Russian fob market cannot afford to go down amid rising interior prices.

• It has been a weak and largely macro driven day in Chicago. US wheat futures have led the way down following Monday’s surge, with some light calendar spread unwinding noted. It is just tough to ignore another $2.50/barrel collapse in US and world crude futures. US crude stocks have recovered 37 million barrels (10%) since mid-September. The number of US rigs in operation has been growing through the boost in stocks. Whether OPEC moves to cut production in early 2019 will be watched with interest. It has been a record breaking move to the downside in energy prices.

• The US$ at midday is down 400 points, but currencies in S America are also weaker. The Brazilian Real has posted a 6-week low, which along with falling fob premiums keeps Brazilian soy prices attractive. Otherwise, there is not much ag-specific news available. The trade expects US corn harvest through Sunday to have reached 87% complete, with beans at 91%. US winter wheat conditions this afternoon are expected steady to slightly lower amid the early arrival of winter. Just how much winter wheat is left to plant across the Southern Plains will also attract attention.

• US export inspections through the week ending Nov 8 included 45 million bu of corn (vs. 51 million the prior week), 13 million bu of wheat (unchanged on the week), and 48 million bu of soybeans (vs. 46 million). All were generally within expectations. For their respective marketing years to date the US has shipped 437 million bu of corn, up 86% from last year, 364 million bu of soybeans, down 42% from a year ago, and 342 million bu of wheat, down 21%. Recall bean shipments a year ago in Oct-Dec routinely hit 65-90 million bu. US exporters sold 277,000 million mt of soybeans for 2018/19 delivery to an unknown destination. Indonesia’s recent interest in importing corn was filled with S American origin, though other details are lacking.

• The midday S American GFS weather forecast is almost completely unchanged. Pesky showers will persist this week across Buenos Aires, where a majority of wheat is grown, but otherwise a welcomed drier pattern will be established across Argentina into the latter part of November. Soaking rain will be ongoing Brazil, with cumulative totals into Nov 27 estimated at 100-170% of normal. Vegetation health in Brazil remains well above last year amid rapid planting.

• Crude’s plunge has been astounding, and the break continues despite the market being the most oversold since the mid-1980s. However, ag supply and demand is most important over any lasting period of time. Grain prices will hold until favourable weather and acreage expansion is confirmed. The soy complex needs ongoing US-China trade dialogue to trade above $8.90, basis Jan.

• Chicago grain futures have extended the overnight rally, with Jan beans recovering from session lows. More attention is being paid to the abrupt weakening of calendar spreads in Chicago wheat, and today has the feel of a short squeeze. Non-commercial traders last Tuesday were short a net 65,000 contracts of wheat in Chicago. We estimate their position this morning was closer to net short 80,000 contracts.

• We would also mention that low temperatures across the Black Sea Region this morning fell into the low/mid-20s. Snow cover is absent. No snow is offered to E Ukraine and Southern/Central Russia over the next 4-5 days. Winterkill rarely impacts price, but freezing temperatures there will be added to excessive rainfall in Argentina, unwanted rain during Eastern Australia’s harvest, and ongoing drought across much of Europe and the Black Sea. Interior US wheat basis is firm, and in parts of the Plains rallied last week with first notice day approaching. Few, if any, wheat deliveries are anticipated. EU milling wheat in Paris has followed, with spot futures there up €2.25/mt ($.07/bu).

• Weekly US grain inspection are delayed until Tuesday. Corn inspections are expected in a range of 45-50 million bu, with wheat at 14-16 million and beans at 40- 45 million. The lag in bean shipments relative to last year will widen. Spot crude is up $.60/barrel, with more talk centered on a potential OPEC production cut in 2019. However, Brazilian ethanol prices this week have fallen again following Petrobras’ lowering of official gas prices in Brazil. Brazilian ethanol maintains steep premiums to US Gulf origin, but US ethanol exports are needed amid lofty stocks and tight production margins.

• The midday S American weather forecast is a bit drier in the 6-15 day period, but heavy rain (2-4”) will fall across North/Northeast Argentina in the next 24 hours. This system moves into Southern Brazil at midweek. Normal to above normal precipitation will continue across the whole of Brazil’s soybean belt into the very end of November. 16-30 day guidance also indicates a pattern of normal rainfall across Brazil during the opening week of December.

• In recent years, the US wheat market has often rallied into first notice day, a theme that will likely continue amid strong cash markets. Seasonal trends are also positive into the latter part of the month.

• The USDA November crop report offered a bullish surprise for US corn and soybeans, but a sharp rise in prior year Chinese corn and wheat production and stocks has created a downdraft following an early Chicago rally. The Chinese and world stocks increase does not change the outlook for US corn, soybean or wheat prices since they (China) are not exporters, but the algorithms  reading trading platforms took the world stocks as bearish-which created a whipsaw market.

• The world table below reflects the big revisions that WASDE produced in China and world end stocks. WASDE raised China’s 2018/19 wheat end stocks by 7.4 million mt to 143.6 MMTs – which now accounts for a record 54% of all world wheat stocks. In corn, WASDE raised China’s corn stocks to by a record 149 million mt to a record large 207.50 million mt. These huge corn stocks have been rumoured for years by the private trade. World 2018/19 corn stocks now stand at 307.5 million mt with China accounting for 68% of that total. We would note that China will not be exporting corn/wheat to the world marketplace. The big statistical supply/stocks increase is cosmetic in terms of what it means for US/world corn/wheat prices, which is why WASDE raised their US corn farmgate price and held soybeans steady. The US 2018 corn yield was lowered to 178.9 bushels/acre with production cut by 152 million bu 14,626 million bu. The cut argues for a further drop in US corn yield and production in January. A final 2018 US corn yield of 176-177 bushels/acre is reasonable. The US 2018 soybean yield dropped to 52.1 bushels/acre with production falling by 90 million bu to 4,600 million bu. This crop is 189 million bu larger than last year. A final US soy yield of 51.8-52.0 bushels/acre is reasonable. Chinese 2018/19 soybean imports were cut by 4 million mt to 90 million which dropped US soybean exports to 1,900 million, down 160 million bu from October,

• In world wheat, WASDE cut their Australian crop estimate by 1 million to 17.5 million mt and reduced their exports by 1.5 million to 11.50 million mt. WASDE did not alter Russian wheat production or exports, nor did they reduce EU wheat exports which were steady at 23.0 million mt. We would argue that WASDE is too high by 3-5 million mt on EU wheat exports based on strong domestic feed prices and an extremely slow start of the export campaign. And Aussie wheat exports should probably be lowered to 8-9 million mt. Major world wheat stock/use ratios are near a record low. Finally, the Ukraine corn crop was raised to 33.5 million mt. Ukraine 2018/19 corn exports where raised by 2 million mt to 27 million which caused the 25 million bu reduction in the 2018/19 US corn export estimate. The historical revisions of China corn, wheat and soybean production was due to their census survey last year. For years, private traders have argued that USDA was underreporting Chinese stocks. In May, WASDE toyed with the idea of producing a world balance sheet excluding China. Following today’s report, the time for such a report is now as China’s huge corn/wheat stocks mask the bullish tightening of other exporter/end user stocks which is occurring. This is no place to be turning bearish and making sales in our opinion. We do not see world wheat prices declining significantly, if at all, on this WASDE report and US wheat prices are competitive in the world export market. In corn, US yields are likely to decline farther, while the soybean market is oversupplied, but there is the late November G20 meeting occurring between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi. The lows for the day were likely formed on Algorithm fund selling as big increase Chinese stocks were announced. In the days ahead, firming grain markets are expected.

• WOW!  USDA and China travelled back to 2007 and found 149 million mt of corn that the Chinese had misplaced! World end stocks almost doubled. In soy, USDA reduces Chinese imports to 90 million mt from 94, and US exports were reduced 4.35 million mt (160 million bu), raising US end stocks 70 million.  Non-US exports were increased and world end stocks only increased by 2 million mt.

• It will take the world a while to digest the increase in Chinese stocks. Our opinion is that it will have little impact on current markets, except to take away bullish hopes of Chinese demand for ethanol and/or corn. The rest of the world has to live with shrinking year on year supplies of non-Chinese corn, likely requiring more US acres to slow the decline. We believe corn is well supported in current ranges. Soybeans likely trade the current ranges as well, the bottom end of the range is vulnerable if US/China trade talks are slow in making real progress.

To download our USDA data recap please click on the link below:

wasde-8-November-2018