• Ag markets are 7-9 cents lower across the board this morning following another week of disappointing export sales, and pessimistic sentiment surrounding US-Chinese relations. The US Administration awaits a firm proposal from China to resume talks, but this is unlikely to happen any time soon.

• US export sales through the week ending October 18 totalled included just 14 million bu of corn, vs. 15 million the prior and an average of 35 million is needed to meet the USDA’s forecast. Wheat sales were a routine 16 million bu. This matches the pace needed to hit the USDA’s target, but only traditional business was included. Weekly soybean sales totaled 8 million, a new marketing year low and down 3 million from the prior week. Large cancellations are again made by unknown destinations. US bean commitments to China rest at 1.03 million mt, vs. 8.7 million mt on this week a year ago. The only bright spots were decent soymeal (203,000 mt) and oil (26,000 mt) sales. For their respective marketing years to date, the US has sold 844 million bu of corn (up 32% from last year), 774 million bu of soybeans (down 26%) and 461 million bu of wheat (down 17%).

• Disappointing EU and US wheat export demand suggests world trade through October is lagging the USDA’s forecast. The total world wheat trade pie is shrinking, but at current prices it remains that the US (the world’s residual exporter) will ultimately export some 1,100-1,150 million bu. Even this forecast assumes world wheat trade of 178 million mt, vs. the USDA’s 180.

• Producers in Saskatchewan have harvested 92% of their spring wheat crop, with canola harvest at 90%. This reflects a sizeable jump from the prior week. The return of snow lies ahead for the Canadian Prairies, but another 3-4 days of dryness and abnormal warmth are expected in the near term. ICE canola futures have fallen $17/mt since early October. The US$ has scored a new 10-week high.

• The midday central US GFS weather forecast is much wetter and a bit cooler across the Plains in the 8-15 day period. The GFS has been rather erratic this week, and so confidence in its extended solution is low. But in the near term, dryness and near normal temperatures will keep harvest active into the latter part of next week. Beginning Oct 31 low pressure currently aloft Canada sinks deep into the Central US, bringing cooler/wetter air along. Upwards of 9-12” of snow are offered to CO, W KS, NE and SD. This is likely overdone, but an eye will need to be kept on extended range trends in the days ahead.

• Gulf HRW this evening will widen its discount to EU origin through the first quarter of 2019, and widen its discount to Russian origin for Dec-Feb. Wheat futures are oversold, with Dec corn not too far behind. Fundamental wheat data remains supportive. Corn is viewed as cheap below $3.70 in spite of rising Ukrainian yields. Beans need a S American weather issue to trade above $8.75, basis Jan.

• Soybeans traded weaker overnight and ended the day 7-8 cents lower. Chicago Ag markets have had limited news to move prices directionally this week, but harvest is now advancing quickly and the collapse in the US equity market added to the bearish financial market sentiment. Funds on Wednesday were estimated sellers of 10,500 soybean, 7,000 soymeal, and 2,500 soyoil contracts. The EIA will release their monthly Biodiesel Production report next week, with data for the month of August. Estimated biodiesel plant returns during the month averaged $.71/gal, which was the best since 2013 and the highest in 2018. Strong margins continued through September, but the collapse in energy markets produced a break in B100 prices, and estimated returns. Initial support in soybeans is just below the market at $8.45, our view is that the market remains caught in a broad trading in the coming months.

• Dec corn fell 2 cents, thus erasing Tuesday’s rally. Fresh news data included a neutral weekly ethanol update and little else. US weather will be conducive to harvest progress into early Nov, while soil moisture boosts are scheduled for most S American corn areas. More than anything, the market lacks input. Better than expected Ukrainian yield and favourable S American weather, which is expected into late year will likely cap rallies for now. Ukrainian fob basis has fallen sharply as harvest there nears completion. Ukrainian corn is offered at level money with Argentine origin, and both are competing to be the world’s low-cost origin of feedgrain for spot arrival. Gulf corn is still competitive, particularly into Asia. And notice that, seasonally, Black Sea basis scores its bottom during or just after harvest. The US market does face competition nearby, but we doubt higher Ukraine yield materially affects the global corn trade matrix. US export sales are expected in a range of 38-43 million bu, vs. a meagre 15 million sold last week. We do not believe breaks will be long lived.

• Reportedly, an article suggesting the Russian government is not at all concerned about the pace of wheat exports triggered a large tranche of fund selling/liquidation. We cannot chase down the validity of these comments, but it remains the US export sales to date have been limited mostly to traditional buyers. Sales on Thursday should be a routine 15-20 million bu. The US$ ended sharply higher. Work suggests enlarged US export demand in the second half of the crop year remains intact. Gulf wheat is offered below Russian for Dec/Jan. Recall in 2016/17 final US wheat exports were 1,051 million bu despite there being no major exporter production loss. The world cash market is, very slowly, working to re-allocate world trade beyond November. Wheat’s chart pattern needs healing from recent damage, we do not see longer term structural weakness.

• Algeria’s state grain buyer OAIC has bought “around half a million mt” of milling wheat at tender, paying roughly 4% less than last time out, trading sources said Wednesday. OAIC picked up the volume for around $257/mt, according to market sources. Algeria does not publish results of its tenders, but the price is about $11-16/mt lower than its last purchase, with traders speculating France to be the most likely origin for the cargoes. Argentinian wheat can also be delivered, although given the timing of the shipment and pace of progress for Argentina’s harvest, it would make it a less likely candidate. Russian wheat will not feature despite exporters having made overtures to authorities in Algiers, as current quality specifications rule out imports with high bug damage.

• Soybeans were on both sides of unchanged throughout Tuesday and closed 1-2 cents weaker on late day selling. Market news has been light at the start of the week, though November soybeans had support under the 50-day moving average. Soy product markets also ended weak with soyoil following energy markets to deep losses, while meal futures were lightly mixed around unchanged. Soy crush spreads ended down 3-8 cents, with the largest losses noted in nearby spreads. The spot soybean crush spread is well under the highs that were traded last summer, but at $1.43/bu is still record high for late October. Chicago is offering crushers an average margin of $1.30/bu through to May and a $1.23 average to the end of the year. This should keep US crush demand strong in the months ahead. At Tuesday’s low, Nov soybeans were 41 cents under last week’s high. US farmers are not anxious to add to sales at these prices, but rallies will be slowed by large US supplies. Without a China resolution, we see spot soybeans caught in $8-9 range.

• Dec corn settled just above unchanged. Prevailing themes include uncertainty over US yield, rising ethanol export potential, and concern over the pace of Russian grain exports moving forward. Corn will follow wheat should the Russian government move to further slow down wheat shipments. Futures-based ethanol margins are negative. Actual margins in the cash market are modestly above variable costs. The incentive to maximise weekly production has eroded. However, unchanged US ethanol prices and rising Brazilian prices have triggered a rather sizeable premium in Brazil, which will remain a large market for US ethanol in late 2018/early 2019. The US forecast is a bit drier next week, and so a full ten days of active harvest lies ahead. A clearer yield picture will be available by the weekend. Work continues to indicate fair value lies between $3.70-3.85 basis Dec futures.

• World wheat futures ended steady to slightly higher. Strength is noteworthy given plunging macro markets. We look for chart-based support to hold this week in anticipation of a meeting between the Russian government and exporters on Friday. We doubt that Friday’s meeting will bring a change to Russian grain shipment policy, but recall in 2014/15 a tax was placed on exports in Feb. The tax was announced the previous December. Contacts suggest something is needed to slow down Russian exports, but just how this is done exactly is known. Interior prices will be the trigger for an outright cap. Russian interior prices are rising but are not yet at excessive levels. Whether the government intervenes is still very much uncertain, but there is little doubt that Russian stocks are tightening. Russian stocks/use on Nov 1 is pegged at their lowest since 2012. World cash markets are again little changed. Gulf HRW is offered at/below Russian for Dec-Feb arrival.

• China’s swine fever outbreak has passed another milestone with the first cases detected in the southwest of the country and a fresh outbreak in the southeast, the government has said on Monday. According to two statements published by the Chinese ministry of agriculture, swine fever incidents have been reported in the city of Taizhou in the Zhejiang province in the southeast region and another in Zhaotong, Yunnan province, for the first time in the southwest region. The two incidents mark the thirty-fourth and thirty-fifth cities in China to report swine fever this year, with the outbreak first detected in August. The city of Taizhou reported 56 pigs had been found dead in a farm of 2,280 pigs, while in Zhaotong, 545 pigs out of 1,157 pigs across two farms died as a result of the fever. Despite China’s National Grain and Oil Information Centre’s (CNGOIC) claim that swine fever will have only limited effect on soybean meal demand in China, made back in early September, outbreaks have escalated in recent weeks. The market is closely watching the development of this disease in China as the pig industry accounted for more than 40% of China’s total soymeal consumption last year.

• US ag markets are unchanged at midday, and so markets have held up well despite another rather negative macro day. Crude extended its overnight losses, with spot WTI down $3.20/barrel at new lows for the move. The Dow is down 350 points on a series of weak quarterly earnings. World equity markets are following. Questions about world economic growth persist.

• We have also heard that the Russian government will meet with grain exporters on Friday. This meet was originally scheduled for last week. Quite what will be discussed and agreed remains to be seen, watch this space! Why the meeting was rescheduled is uncertain and we have no way of knowing what will come of the meeting. A ban/cap on exports is highly unlikely, but we have highlighted that interior Russian wheat prices have hit two-year highs. Wheat stocks in Russia on Nov 1 are expected to be at a two-year low, with stocks/use tight. Recall that in 2014 the government added a tax on wheat exports, which was announced months in advance. It is the price of Russian interior prices, and pushback from domestic industries, that will potentially trigger government intervention.

• Wednesday’s EIA report should include another boost in US crude stocks. Ethanol production margins remain depressed, and so grind last week is likely to be flat. We would mention that Brazilian cash ethanol prices are up yet again, with a much better pace of US ethanol exports due in late 2018/early 2019.

• The European weather forecast is drier in key parts of France and Germany. Precipitation this week will instead favour the Alps, far Western Ukraine and Central Russia. Some areas will benefit but a large portion of the EU/Black Sea wheat belt will be left dry. Wheat and soy futures have recovered at major chart-based support, with Dec corn again above its 20-day moving average. As expected, neither the bulls nor bears have had much leverage this week.

• The midday central US GFS weather forecast is little changed and still wet in the extended period. Excessive rainfall is not indicated, but 2-3 light/moderate rain events are forecast Oct 31-Nov 6. Accumulations in the 7-12 day period are put at 0.50-1.50”. The heaviest amounts will fall across IA, M N and WI. There is no sign of any shift to bitter cold or meaningful snow over the next two weeks. In the near term, it remains that near zero precipitation is expected across the heart of the corn/soy Belt into early next week.

• The fundamental outlook remains supportive of corn, bullish wheat and bearish beans on rallies. The outlook for S American weather into early 2019 is normal/favourable.

• US wheat futures are down 3-8 cents on regionally beneficial rainfall in Europe and Russia and a stronger US$, while row crops markets maintain overnight strength. Just how widespread soybean damage is will be at issue this week, and funds last Tuesday have been sizable net seller of grains. Managed funds last Tuesday surprised the trade by establishing a net long position for the first time since summer. However, that length was liquidated in the following days. Fresh input is needed to sustain direction in one direction or another.

• Crop quality issues are rarely bullish, but a positive price/basis response can be expected if enough beans fail to meet deliverable grades. A clearer US yield/quality picture will be available by late week. US export inspections through the week ending October 18 included 38 million bu of corn, vs. 40 million in the previous week; 14 million bu of wheat, vs. 17 million the prior week; and 42 million bu of soybeans, vs. 44 million. All were within trade guesses. For their respective marketing years to date, the US has shipped 308 million bu of corn, up 72% from last year; 302 million bu of wheat, down 24%; and 218 million bu of soybeans, down 40% from this week in 2017. US soybean sales and shipments continue to lag the USDA’s already weak annual forecast.

• Syria this morning bought 200,000 mt of Russian wheat at $255/mt, basis cost and freight. This compares to Syria’s last buy of $225/mt in mid-September. Russian exporters continue to find demand, but a trend of higher world wheat cash prices remains intact. Note, too, that Russia’s Ruble has rallied further and is testing late Sep’s high. Russian exporters no longer have access to ultra-cheap domestic supplies. Crude is down $.20/barrel at $68.90. The Dow is down 160 points.

• The midday central US weather pattern is much warmer in the extended period but otherwise little changed. Confidence is rising with respect to the return of soaking Midwest precipitation beyond Nov 1. The GFS has been consistent in this shift in recent days. Other models are beginning to follow. Favourable dryness persists through the week ahead. Beginning next Wed/Thurs the mean position of the Central US jet stream is forced southward. Cumulative rainfall Oct 31-Nov 5 is projected in a range of 1-3”. The heaviest totals, for now, are offered to E KS, MO, IA and N IL. Fortunately, no major snow event is indicated.

• US wheat futures have fallen to test major chart-based support. US Gulf wheat’s position in the world market for Dec-Feb arrival will improve further. Corn and beans are rangebound in the near term.

• The USDA announced export cancellations from China and unknown destination, which added to the late week bearish tone. The USDA’s export cancellation notices included 180,000 mt of sales to China and 120,000 mt of optional origin sales to unknown destination. Last week China had very limited sales of less than 1 million mt on the books, and the trade expects that most of those will be cancelled. There were 7.4 million mt of sales to unknown destinations, while sales to the rest of the world were at multi-year highs. Given wide price spreads, we expect that the US will continue to win most (if not all) of the world’s non-Chinese demand in the upcoming months/year. The CoT report showed that funds had covered another 5,000 contracts through Tuesday and were net short 36,000 contracts. Our view remains that spot soybeans are caught in a wide range of $8-9 into late year. Initial support in November is at $8.45. Quality issues continue to build across the Midwest according to commercial firms.

• Dec corn fell another 4 cents and ended a shade below its 50-day moving average. Next chart based support rests at $3.55. Whether a test of this is warranted will hinge upon actual yield results over the next week. Funds on Tuesday were long a net 20,000 contracts, and long for the first time since summer. However, funds since Tuesday are believed to have liquidated net length entirely and are estimated to be marginally short as of Friday’s close. This week’s corn decline is fundamental in nature, Ukrainian yields have improved further on the week, US ethanol margins are weak, and US ethanol stocks remain record large. The Argentine weather forecast has trended wetter. None of this materially impacts world corn supply and demand, but there will be some measure of competition for world corn demand into late year. The risk of a sub-180 national yield offers support on breaks.

• US and EU wheat futures shrugged off weakness in row crops. Funds in Chicago on Tuesday were short a net 17,000 contracts, unchanged on the week. We have mentioned that Russian fob prices for Jan/Feb have rallied to levels above US and European offers. And the rally in interior Russian prices continues unabated, and it is the speed at which Russian prices have rallied that is noteworthy. Otherwise, enthusiasm in world wheat markets remains lacking. All eyes will be on deferred Black Sea offers in the weeks ahead. The Australian harvest is due in a matter of weeks, and key will be whether there has been a yield response to recent rainfall in New South Wales and Queensland. Most in the trade have kept final Aussie production estimates below 18 million mt, vs. USDA’s 18.5. Aussie futures remain perched at $8.40/bu. Wheat should trade independent from corn/beans through the balance of the year. Downside risk in our opinion is limited to $5.00.

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Weekend summary 19 October 2018

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Fund positions disaggregated data

• Red has blanketed Chicago price boards this morning amid disappointing weekly US export sales, favourable harvest weather and ongoing normal/above normal rainfall expected in S America into early November. It has also been another weak macro day, with the Dow down another 265 points. Money is moving from equities to debt, with the Fed this week hinting that additional rate hikes lie ahead. As such the US$ is stronger, while other major exporting currencies are weaker.

• FAS’s weekly sales report included 15 million bu of corn, vs. 40 million the prior week; 17 million bu of Bu of wheat, vs. 12 million; and a paltry 11 million bu of beans, vs. 16 million the previous week. Weekly corn sales were a marketing year low. Large soybean cancellations worth 25 million bu were made by unknown destinations. This is very likely China, as US beans to other origins are very cheap. China has taken 1.09 million mt of US beans, vs. 12.9 million mt last year. This week’s corn demand is viewed as an anomaly, but following weak ethanol data Wednesday, fresh news this week has been bearish on the margin. For their respective marketing years to date the US has sold 830 million bu of corn, up 41% from a year ago; 766 million bu of soybeans, down 21%; and 445 million bu of wheat, down 18% from this week in 2017.

• Canada’s harvest has resumed, but at a rather slow pace. Spring wheat harvest in Saskatchewan is 72% complete, vs. 65% last week and 98% last year. Canola harvest is 67% done, vs. 95% in mid-October a year ago. Quality issues have been cited following recent snow.

• Following this morning’s selloff, we estimate that managed funds are short 20,000 contracts of corn, 25,000 contracts of wheat in Chicago, and 30,000 contracts of beans.

• The midday central US weather pattern is much wetter across the Delta and Eastern Midwest beyond November 1. Confidence in this solution is low and requires validation by other models in the days ahead. Otherwise, meaningful precipitation over the next 11-12 days will be strictly confined to the Southern Plains and southern Delta region. Like the morning run, cooler than normal temperatures will be sustained across the Eastern half of the US into late next week. Warmer temperatures are forecast thereafter. No major snow events are indicated.

• Jan beans neared overbought territory early in the week, and with China able to refrain from the US market a S American weather issue is needed to sustain $9.00+. We maintain that deep corrections in grain markets are buying opportunities and downside risk in wheat is limited to 5-7 cents.

• It has been a mixed morning in Chicago, with row crops steady to higher and wheat down 4-6 cents. EU milling wheat futures in Paris have followed to modest losses. Better rainfall lies ahead for the driest areas of Western Argentina, but otherwise the EU and US markets are still looking for export demand.

• The highlight this morning is a bearish weekly EIA report. US ethanol production through the week ending Oct 12 fell to 297 million gallons, down 9 million on the week and slightly below mid-Oct a year ago. Slowed weekly ethanol grind is common during harvest, but production was lower than expected nonetheless. US ethanol stocks last week totalled a near-record 1,014 million gallons, up 5 million on the prior week and up 12% on this week a year ago. Ethanol stocks are large even amid solid domestic use. US crude stocks also rose another 6.4 million barrels to the largest level in 15 weeks. Record US production is needed to sustain builds in stocks, but finally production is exceeding total disappearance. Spot WTI crude is down $1.80 at $70.10, testing its 100-day moving average. Ethanol and gasoline futures have followed.

• Jordan bought one cargo of optional origin wheat at $263/mt, including cost and freight. This compares to its last purchase in early Sep at $257/mt. The trend of rising world wheat cash prices is intact, but the trade has noticed a general lack of world tender activity in recent weeks.

• The S American forecast has trended much wetter across Central Brazil in recent days. Seasonal rains have arrived much earlier than in recent years. The midday GFS features accumulation of 2-5” across Mato Grosso and Goias in the 8-15 day period. If this verifies, Oct precipitation in Central Brazil will be a bit better than average.

• US weekly export sales should include 40-45 million bu of corn, 20-25 million bu of soybeans and 17-22 million bu of wheat. All estimates are fairly routine, but in the case of beans cumulative sales will fall further behind last year.

• The midday central US weather pattern has added rain/light snow to the Great Lakes region Oct 27-29. Otherwise, the outlook maintains complete dryness across the Plains and Midwest into the opening days of November. Temperatures will lean a bit cool, but additional lasting harvest delays are not expected. Canada, too, will be dry over the next 10-12 days.

• Corn futures showing strength in the face of bearish ethanol data is noteworthy. The world wheat market has simply been rather dull since early October. And a general lack of news/excitement is expected into late month. Note also that El Niño bodes favourably for Argentine weather and yield.

• Chicago is mostly lower at midday with corn/soybeans weaker, while the wheat market trades on both sides of unchanged. The volume of trade has been below yesterday and somewhat more two-sided. Funds were early buyers, but when the early rally failed, the selling stepped up during the midday hour. The prospect that the US harvest will resume across the W Midwest in the next 36-48 hours along with stepped up cash corn selling sparked Chicago selling this morning. US farmers could be going “full bore” with harvest on the weekend which is likely to continue next week. US corn/soy harvest will likely reach more than 50% through Sunday, a data point that may interest speculators (once again).

• Chicago brokers estimate that funds have been sellers of 4,200 contracts of corn, sellers of 4,300 contracts of soybeans, whilst being flat in wheat. In soy products, funds have sold 3,200 contracts of soymeal whilst buying 1,000 contracts of soyoil. Oil/meal spreading was noted early this morning.

• We note that spot Chicago oat futures are back above $3.00/bu and testing their 2017 highs. A close above $3.12 would turn all longer-term chart patterns bullish. World barley prices rest at record highs today, and now oat values are sitting at just a 72-cent discount to corn. The message is that world wheat and small grain stocks are tightening, and that additional seeded acres are needed. We suspect that oat values may be making a statement on future corn and wheat values.

• If US legislators cannot pass a new Farm Bill before early December, they will be forced to pass a one-year extension of the 2014 Bill. Ahead of the Midterm election, the odds of succeeding with a new Farm Bill are dim. The odds-on bet at this time is an extension which will help in refunding existing programs.

• Russian fob wheat prices keep grinding higher on tightening supplies with November offered at $234/mt. Russia has been acting like it has a 50 million mt exportable wheat surplus (which is realistically closer to 25-30 million mt). The rush to push quality wheat out the door is one reason why the Government will have to place a duty or some other restriction on its wheat exports. The time for a switch from Russian wheat to other origins will likely occur in the next few weeks.

• The midday central US weather pattern shows that a ridge/trough pattern will persist across N America for the next two weeks. The pattern will allow for improving harvest conditions as soils firm. We note that very cold air evident today will moderate heading into the weekend. Highs will return to the 50’s, 60’s and lower 70’s which will help facilitate drying. Forecasts offer wide open harvest conditions into the closing days of October. Any moisture will be focused on the SE Plains and through the lower Delta. The 11-15 day period offers mild/dry weather to help finish up the Midwest harvest into the opening days of November.

• Futures contract prices are correcting from Monday’s strong rally amid open harvest weather and slowing demand for US soybeans. Wheat is holding steady as world demand is about ready to shift to the US. Russian/EU and Australian wheat prices keep rising which is placing a supportive floor under Chicago wheat values. Research maintains that US wheat has a bullish outlook as Russian exports seasonally slow. The outlook for rain is poor for the EU/E Russia wheat areas into late October.

• Chicago corn/soybean futures have rallied to sharp morning gains. November soybeans pushed above $8.75 resistance and triggered a new round of fund short covering. December corn futures keeps pushing to a short-term target of $3.80- 3.85 while the wheat market is languishing in its recent trading range. Dec KC wheat needs to close above $5.32 to confirm a new rally effort. Wheat charts are sideways as wheat/corn and wheat/soybean spreads are being liquidated. Our view is that we are heading for a higher close in the summer row crops, and that a short-term peak in the soybean market to be forged on Tuesday. The Midwest harvest restarts late week and cash soybean availability will be uncovered by Friday.

• US soybean harvest progress has been slow via persistent wet Midwest weather amid variable temperatures. Quality concern is noted amid damaged or sprouted soybeans. Interior elevators have been reporting quality issues in the Delta, and those concerns are now spreading north. Quality discounts exist on damaged soybeans above 8%. Historically, quality reductions are not bullish as it causes reduced margins for crushers and exporters. The USDA weekly export inspections report for the week ending October 11 were; 39.2 million bu of corn, 42.5 million bu of soybeans, and 16.6 million bu of wheat. All combined, weekly exports of the three principle crops were 98.3 million bu vs 92.7 million last week and 90.6 million bu last year. For their respective crop years to date, the US has shipped out 269 million bu of corn (up 115 million or 75%), 173.5 million bu of soybeans (down 93 million or 35%) with wheat at 287.2 million bu (down 104 million or 27%). The wheat and soybean export pace are disappointing. NOPA reported a record Sept soybean crush rate of 160.8 million bu compared to 136.4 million bu last year and the prior record set back in 2007 at 139.8 million. The crush was better than expected, but it is too early yet for USDA to raise their annual forecast. One reason why the Chicago soybean market has not declined more sharply is based on extremely strong crush margins and willingness of crushers to secure any cash related decline. NOPA soyoil stocks were 1,531 million pounds. This compared to 1,302 million pounds last year and 1,623 million pounds in August.

• The midday central US weather pattern shows that a ridge/trough pattern will hold across N America over the next two weeks with some eastward progression next week. The pattern will allow for improving harvest conditions as soils firm. We note that very cold air evident will moderate on the weekend and next week. Instead of temperatures being 15-20 degrees below normal this week, the warming will take readings to 3-8 degrees below normal. Some rains push back into the W Midwest during the closing days of October, but there is no evidence of a return of near to above normal rainfall. The weather pattern has improved for the Central US harvest during the next two weeks.

• Funds have been huge buyers of soybeans/meal this morning which has pushed spot futures near $8.90 basis November. Our upside price targets are being reached. We see spot Chicago soybeans as caught in a $8-9.00 trading range. Corn and wheat are following soybeans, but it will be tough for March corn to rise above $4.00. The bullish stalwart is wheat when Russian wheat exports slow. We are preparing to turn bearish soybeans as November pushes above $8.90.